Preussen Munster 3–1 MSV Duisburg: Result & Stats

Preussen Munster

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

MSV Duisburg

G. Wegkamp 90+5', 74'

Y. Bouchama 46'

A. Bakir 81'

2/23/2024

League #80 · Round 27Preußen-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Preussen Munster53%

×Draw23%

MSV Duisburg24%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Preussen MunsterExpected goals in this matchMSV Duisburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.12

Preussen Munster

1.79

MSV Duisburg

1.12

Preussen Munster creates 60% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 10 away

1.57

creates per match

1.10

1.14

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Preussen Munster

1.57

MSV Duisburg

1.10

allows per match

Preussen Munster

1.14

MSV Duisburg

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Preussen Munster+0.00on par

MSV Duisburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preussen Munster ↓

MSV Duisburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Preussen Munster or draw

76%

Preussen Munster or MSV Duisburg

77%

Draw or MSV Duisburg

47%

Winning margin

Preussen Munster wins by 2+

29%

MSV Duisburg wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Preussen Munster 1+ goals

83%

Preussen Munster 2+ goals

53%

Preussen Munster 3+ goals

26%

MSV Duisburg 1+ goals

67%

MSV Duisburg 2+ goals

31%

MSV Duisburg 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Preussen Munster (draw refunded)

69%

MSV Duisburg (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preussen Munster at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.14 · 21 matches

MSV Duisburg away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preussen Munster attack 1.57 + MSV Duisburg defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.79

MSV Duisburg attack 1.10 + Preussen Munster defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Preussen Munster scores more

53%

level

23%

MSV Duisburg scores more

24%

Preussen Munster at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Preussen Munster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

G. Wegkamp

Preussen Munster · F

8.3

Match Events

19'

26'

43'

45+2'

46'

Y. Bouchama← T. Deters

46'

Y. Bouchama

50'

R. Preißinger← S. Mrowca

57'

A. Bakir← D. Ginczek

58'

R. Müller← A. Esswein

58'

E. Zenga← J. Michelbrink

61'

Simon Scherder

66'

Rolf Feltscher

72'

G. Wegkamp← M. Batmaz

74'

G. Wegkamp↳ S. Scherder

79'

T. Köther← S. Castañeda

79'

A. Engin← R. Feltscher

81'

A. Bakir↳ N. Kölle

86'

D. Steczyk← J. Grodowski

86'

S. Oubeyapwa← M. Lorenz

87'

90+3'

90+3'

90+3'

90+3'

90+5'

G. Wegkamp↳ S. Oubeyapwa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PreussenMSV

Overview

61%Possession39%

13Total Shots8

1.05Expected Goals (xG)1.18

11Corners4

16Fouls13

Shots

13Total Shots8

7On Target2

1Off Target3

5Blocked3

10Inside Box5

3Outside Box3

Passing

61%Possession39%

510Total Passes300

444Accurate Passes226

87%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

16Fouls13

5Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

5Offsides4

Match Recap: Preussen Munster vs MSV Duisburg

Preussen Munster beat MSV Duisburg 3-1 in League #80 on February 23, 2024.

Goals: Y. Bouchama (46'), G. Wegkamp (74', 90+5'), A. Bakir (81').

Preussen Munster controlled possession (61%) and registered 13 shots to 8.

The match was played at Preußen-Stadion in Münster.

Preussen Munster vs MSV Duisburg — League #80 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Preussen Munster vs MSV Duisburg