MSV Duisburg 0–0 Preussen Munster: Result & Stats

MSV Duisburg

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Preussen Munster

9/30/2023

League #80 · Round 8Schauinsland-Reisen-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

MSV Duisburg49%

×Draw27%

Preussen Munster24%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MSV DuisburgExpected goals in this matchPreussen Munster

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.89

MSV Duisburg

1.42

Preussen Munster

0.89

MSV Duisburg creates 60% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 21 away

1.18

creates per match

0.86

0.91

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

MSV Duisburg

1.18

Preussen Munster

0.86

allows per match

MSV Duisburg

0.91

Preussen Munster

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

MSV Duisburg+0.00on par

Preussen Munster+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MSV Duisburg ↓

Preussen Munster →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

MSV Duisburg or draw

76%

MSV Duisburg or Preussen Munster

73%

Draw or Preussen Munster

51%

Winning margin

MSV Duisburg wins by 2+

24%

Preussen Munster wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

MSV Duisburg 1+ goals

76%

MSV Duisburg 2+ goals

41%

MSV Duisburg 3+ goals

17%

Preussen Munster 1+ goals

59%

Preussen Munster 2+ goals

22%

Preussen Munster 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

MSV Duisburg (draw refunded)

68%

Preussen Munster (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MSV Duisburg at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

Preussen Munster away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.67 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MSV Duisburg attack 1.18 + Preussen Munster defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.42

Preussen Munster attack 0.86 + MSV Duisburg defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

MSV Duisburg scores more

49%

level

27%

Preussen Munster scores more

24%

MSV Duisburg at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "MSV Duisburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

Niko Koulis

43'

Alexander Esswein

46'

S. Scherder← S. Mrowca

60'

T. Köther← A. Esswein

60'

N. Stierlin← J. Michelbrink

61'

D. Ghindovean← M. Lorenz

61'

Y. Bouchama← R. Preißinger

72'

72'

74'

74'

76'

77'

80'

T. Fleckstein← J. Bitter

80'

H. Anhari← C. Ekene

82'

G. Wegkamp← J. Grodowski

83'

Santiago Castaneda

Possession

Shots

Statistics

MSVPreussen

Overview

55%Possession45%

17Total Shots11

7Corners6

13Fouls9

Shots

17Total Shots11

8On Target3

9Off Target2

Passing

55%Possession45%

Goalkeeping

3Saves9

Discipline

13Fouls9

4Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

2Offsides1