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Preussen Munster vs MSV Duisburg — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Preussen Munster
Preussen Munster
CANC
13:00
MSV Duisburg
MSV Duisburg
1/8/2022Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Preussen Munster54%
×Draw21%
MSV Duisburg25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Preussen Munster
2.05
MSV Duisburg
1.33

Preussen Munster creates 54% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

creates per match

Preussen Munster
2.86
MSV Duisburg
1.38

allows per match

Preussen Munster
1.29
MSV Duisburg
1.25

finishing

Preussen Munster+0.00on par
MSV Duisburg+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preussen Munster ↓

MSV Duisburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Preussen Munster or draw
75%
Preussen Munster or MSV Duisburg
79%
Draw or MSV Duisburg
46%

Winning margin

Preussen Munster wins by 2+
32%
MSV Duisburg wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Preussen Munster 1+ goals
87%
Preussen Munster 2+ goals
61%
Preussen Munster 3+ goals
33%
MSV Duisburg 1+ goals
74%
MSV Duisburg 2+ goals
38%
MSV Duisburg 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Preussen Munster (draw refunded)
69%
MSV Duisburg (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preussen Munster at home — creates 2.86, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

MSV Duisburg away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preussen Munster attack 2.86 + MSV Duisburg defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 2.05

MSV Duisburg attack 1.38 + Preussen Munster defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Preussen Munster scores more
54%
level
21%
MSV Duisburg scores more
25%

Preussen Munster at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Preussen Munster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preussen Munster face MSV Duisburg (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with Preussen Munster hosting MSV Duisburg. Match starts January 8, 2022. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Preussen Munster host MSV Duisburg at TBC.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.