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Preussen Munster vs MSV Duisburg — League #80 2026

Preussen Munster
Preussen Munster
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
MSV Duisburg
MSV Duisburg
11/2/2014League #80League #80 · Round 16Preußen-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Preussen Munster52%
×Draw23%
MSV Duisburg25%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Preussen Munster
1.77
MSV Duisburg
1.14

Preussen Munster creates 55% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 10 away

creates per match

Preussen Munster
1.54
MSV Duisburg
1.10

allows per match

Preussen Munster
1.17
MSV Duisburg
2.00

finishing

Preussen Munster+0.00on par
MSV Duisburg+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preussen Munster ↓

MSV Duisburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Preussen Munster or draw
75%
Preussen Munster or MSV Duisburg
77%
Draw or MSV Duisburg
48%

Winning margin

Preussen Munster wins by 2+
29%
MSV Duisburg wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Preussen Munster 1+ goals
83%
Preussen Munster 2+ goals
53%
Preussen Munster 3+ goals
26%
MSV Duisburg 1+ goals
68%
MSV Duisburg 2+ goals
32%
MSV Duisburg 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Preussen Munster (draw refunded)
68%
MSV Duisburg (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preussen Munster at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.17 · 24 matches

MSV Duisburg away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preussen Munster attack 1.54 + MSV Duisburg defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.77

MSV Duisburg attack 1.10 + Preussen Munster defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Preussen Munster scores more
52%
level
23%
MSV Duisburg scores more
25%

Preussen Munster at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Preussen Munster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #80: Preussen Munster 1–0 MSV Duisburg

Preussen Munster beat MSV Duisburg 1-0 in League #80 on November 2, 2014.

The match was played at Preußen-Stadion in Münster.