Preussen Munster 2–0 FC Magdeburg: Result & Stats

Preussen Munster

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

FC Magdeburg

12/13/2019

League #80 · Round 19Preußen-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Preussen Munster36%

×Draw24%

FC Magdeburg39%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Preussen MunsterExpected goals in this matchFC Magdeburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.52

Preussen Munster

1.46

FC Magdeburg

1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 8 away

1.54

creates per match

1.88

1.17

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Preussen Munster

1.54

FC Magdeburg

1.88

allows per match

Preussen Munster

1.17

FC Magdeburg

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Preussen Munster+0.00on par

FC Magdeburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preussen Munster ↓

FC Magdeburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Preussen Munster or draw

61%

Preussen Munster or FC Magdeburg

76%

Draw or FC Magdeburg

64%

Winning margin

Preussen Munster wins by 2+

17%

FC Magdeburg wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Preussen Munster 1+ goals

77%

Preussen Munster 2+ goals

43%

Preussen Munster 3+ goals

18%

FC Magdeburg 1+ goals

78%

FC Magdeburg 2+ goals

45%

FC Magdeburg 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Preussen Munster (draw refunded)

48%

FC Magdeburg (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preussen Munster at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.17 · 24 matches

FC Magdeburg away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preussen Munster attack 1.54 + FC Magdeburg defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.46

FC Magdeburg attack 1.88 + Preussen Munster defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Preussen Munster scores more

36%

level

24%

FC Magdeburg scores more

39%

FC Magdeburg at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FC Magdeburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff