Preußen Münster 1–2 1. FC Magdeburg: Result & Stats

Preußen Münster

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

1. FC Magdeburg

J. Mees 38'

M. Mathisen 54'

B. Atik 12'

12/7/2024

2. Bundesliga · Round 15Preußen-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Preußen Münster39%

×Draw25%

1. FC Magdeburg36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Preußen MünsterExpected goals in this match1. FC Magdeburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.39

Preußen Münster

1.46

1. FC Magdeburg

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 84 away

1.15

creates per match

1.52

1.26

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Preußen Münster

1.15

1. FC Magdeburg

1.52

allows per match

Preußen Münster

1.26

1. FC Magdeburg

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Preußen Münster+0.00on par

1. FC Magdeburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preußen Münster ↓

1. FC Magdeburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Preußen Münster or draw

64%

Preußen Münster or 1. FC Magdeburg

75%

Draw or 1. FC Magdeburg

61%

Winning margin

Preußen Münster wins by 2+

19%

1. FC Magdeburg wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Preußen Münster 1+ goals

77%

Preußen Münster 2+ goals

43%

Preußen Münster 3+ goals

18%

1. FC Magdeburg 1+ goals

75%

1. FC Magdeburg 2+ goals

40%

1. FC Magdeburg 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Preußen Münster (draw refunded)

52%

1. FC Magdeburg (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preußen Münster at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

1. FC Magdeburg away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.76 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preußen Münster attack 1.15 + 1. FC Magdeburg defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.46

1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.52 + Preußen Münster defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Preußen Münster scores more

39%

level

25%

1. FC Magdeburg scores more

36%

Preußen Münster at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Preußen Münster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

B. Atik

1. FC Magdeburg · F

7.9

Match Events

12'

B. Atik↳ J. Hugonet

38'

J. Mees↳ C. Makridis

45'

András Németh

46'

C. Krempicki← P. Hercher

46'

Bryan Teixeira← S. Gnaka

46'

F. Michel← L. Burcu

54'

M. Mathisen↳ M. El Hankouri

57'

Samuel Loric

59'

E. Amenyido← L. Bazzoli

59'

D. Kyerewaa← J. Grodowski

65'

Jano ter Horst

69'

A. Nollenberger← B. Atik

74'

H. Friðjónsson← M. Kirkeskov

78'

M. Lorenz← C. Makridis

81'

Martijn Kaars

82'

Falko Michel

90'

Lukas Frenkert

90+3'

P. Nadjombe← S. Loric

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Preußen1.

Overview

40%Possession60%

14Total Shots16

3Corners5

14Fouls14

Shots

14Total Shots16

3On Target5

8Off Target5

3Blocked6

4Inside Box12

10Outside Box4

Passing

40%Possession60%

300Total Passes461

204Accurate Passes355

68%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls14

3Yellow Cards3

1Offsides4