Preußen Münster 1–3 1. FC Magdeburg: Result & Stats

Preußen Münster

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

1. FC Magdeburg

E. Amenyido 80'

R. Tachie 90'

M. Zukowski 72', 45' (pen)

3/22/2026

2. Bundesliga · Round 27Preussenstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Preußen Münster39%

×Draw25%

1. FC Magdeburg36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Preußen MünsterExpected goals in this match1. FC Magdeburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.39

Preußen Münster

1.46

1. FC Magdeburg

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 84 away

1.15

creates per match

1.52

1.26

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Preußen Münster

1.15

1. FC Magdeburg

1.52

allows per match

Preußen Münster

1.26

1. FC Magdeburg

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Preußen Münster+0.00on par

1. FC Magdeburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preußen Münster ↓

1. FC Magdeburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Preußen Münster or draw

64%

Preußen Münster or 1. FC Magdeburg

75%

Draw or 1. FC Magdeburg

61%

Winning margin

Preußen Münster wins by 2+

19%

1. FC Magdeburg wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Preußen Münster 1+ goals

77%

Preußen Münster 2+ goals

43%

Preußen Münster 3+ goals

18%

1. FC Magdeburg 1+ goals

75%

1. FC Magdeburg 2+ goals

40%

1. FC Magdeburg 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Preußen Münster (draw refunded)

52%

1. FC Magdeburg (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preußen Münster at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

1. FC Magdeburg away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.76 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preußen Münster attack 1.15 + 1. FC Magdeburg defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.46

1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.52 + Preußen Münster defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Preußen Münster scores more

39%

level

25%

1. FC Magdeburg scores more

36%

Preußen Münster at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Preußen Münster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

M. Zukowski

1. FC Magdeburg · F

7.7

Match Events

39'

Falko Michel

44'

Jorrit HendrixGoal cancelled

45'

M. ZukowskiPenalty

54'

Rico Preißinger

65'

M. Schulz← O. Vilhelmsson

65'

O. Batista Meier← J. Mees

65'

L. Lokotsch← R. Preissinger

67'

C. Krempicki← L. Ulrich

67'

R. Tachie← R. Ghrieb

67'

J. Hugonet← F. Michel

72'

Jannis Heuer

72'

M. Zukowski↳ C. Krempicki

80'

E. Amenyido↳ Y. Bouchama

81'

I. Rondic← Y. Bouchama

82'

Philipp Hercher

86'

T. Paetow← N. Koulis

86'

N. Pesch← B. Atik

88'

A. Holmstrom← M. Zukowski

90'

R. Tachie↳ N. Pesch

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Preußen1.

Overview

48%Possession52%

14Total Shots8

1.30Expected Goals (xG)2.20

6Corners3

11Fouls19

Shots

14Total Shots8

2On Target6

5Off Target0

7Blocked2

11Inside Box6

3Outside Box2

Passing

48%Possession52%

405Total Passes455

324Accurate Passes382

80%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

-0.25Goals Prevented-0.25

Discipline

11Fouls19

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1