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FC Magdeburg vs Preussen Munster — League #80 2026

FC Magdeburg
FC Magdeburg
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Preussen Munster
Preussen Munster
M. Osei-Kwadwo 77'
C. Beck 56'
M. Litka 78', 75'
7/4/2020League #80League #80 · Round 38MDCC-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

FC Magdeburg69%
×Draw20%
Preussen Munster12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Magdeburg
2.02
Preussen Munster
0.68

FC Magdeburg creates 197% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 21 away

creates per match

FC Magdeburg
2.38
Preussen Munster
0.86

allows per match

FC Magdeburg
0.50
Preussen Munster
1.67

finishing

FC Magdeburg+0.00on par
Preussen Munster+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Magdeburg ↓

Preussen Munster →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

FC Magdeburg or draw
88%
FC Magdeburg or Preussen Munster
80%
Draw or Preussen Munster
31%

Winning margin

FC Magdeburg wins by 2+
43%
Preussen Munster wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

FC Magdeburg 1+ goals
87%
FC Magdeburg 2+ goals
60%
FC Magdeburg 3+ goals
33%
Preussen Munster 1+ goals
49%
Preussen Munster 2+ goals
15%
Preussen Munster 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

FC Magdeburg (draw refunded)
86%
Preussen Munster (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Magdeburg at home — creates 2.38, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

Preussen Munster away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.67 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Magdeburg attack 2.38 + Preussen Munster defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.02

Preussen Munster attack 0.86 + FC Magdeburg defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

FC Magdeburg scores more
69%
level
20%
Preussen Munster scores more
12%

FC Magdeburg at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "FC Magdeburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'
M. Osei-Kwadwo← T. Perthel
56'
C. Beck↳ T. Jacobsen
58'
O. Erdogan← K. Pires-Rodrigues
64'
M. Kvesić← S. Conteh
66'
J. Weigel← T. Jacobsen
66'
M. Litka← J. Grodowski
75'
M. Litka↳ L. Schnellbacher
77'
M. Osei-Kwadwo↳ A. Roczen
78'
M. Litka↳ O. Kittner
79'
J. Schauerte
83'
J. Lohmannsroben
85'
M. Königs← N. Mekonnen

Possession

58%FC

Shots

7FC

Statistics

FCPreussen
Overview
58%Possession42%
7Total Shots8
5Corners3
17Fouls9
Shots
7Total Shots8
4On Target2
3Off Target6
Passing
58%Possession42%
Goalkeeping
0Saves2
Discipline
17Fouls9
0Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
1Offsides0

Match Recap: FC Magdeburg vs Preussen Munster

FC Magdeburg and Preussen Munster drew 2-2 in League #80 on July 4, 2020.

Goals: C. Beck (56'), M. Litka (75', 78'), M. Osei-Kwadwo (77').

FC Magdeburg controlled possession (58%) and registered 7 shots to 8.

The match was played at MDCC-Arena in Magdeburg.