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Preußen Münster II vs FC Gutersloh — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Preußen Münster II
Preußen Münster II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
FC Gutersloh
FC Gutersloh
5/24/2023Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 25Preußen-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Preußen Münster II40%
×Draw23%
FC Gutersloh37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Preußen Münster II
1.69
FC Gutersloh
1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 90 home / 36 away

creates per match

Preußen Münster II
2.44
FC Gutersloh
1.67

allows per match

Preußen Münster II
1.54
FC Gutersloh
0.94

finishing

Preußen Münster II+0.00on par
FC Gutersloh+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preußen Münster II ↓

FC Gutersloh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Preußen Münster II or draw
63%
Preußen Münster II or FC Gutersloh
77%
Draw or FC Gutersloh
60%

Winning margin

Preußen Münster II wins by 2+
21%
FC Gutersloh wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Preußen Münster II 1+ goals
82%
Preußen Münster II 2+ goals
50%
Preußen Münster II 3+ goals
24%
FC Gutersloh 1+ goals
80%
FC Gutersloh 2+ goals
47%
FC Gutersloh 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Preußen Münster II (draw refunded)
52%
FC Gutersloh (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preußen Münster II at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.54 · 90 matches

FC Gutersloh away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.94 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preußen Münster II attack 2.44 + FC Gutersloh defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.69

FC Gutersloh attack 1.67 + Preußen Münster II defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Preußen Münster II scores more
40%
level
23%
FC Gutersloh scores more
37%

Preußen Münster II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Preußen Münster II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: Preußen Münster II 1–2 FC Gutersloh

FC Gutersloh beat Preußen Münster II 2-1 in Oberliga - Westfalen on May 24, 2023.

The match was played at Preußen-Stadion in Münster.