FC Gutersloh 4–1 Preußen Münster II: Result & Stats

FC Gutersloh

FT

4 – 1

Preußen Münster II

9/26/2021

Oberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 5Heidewaldstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

FC Gutersloh46%

×Draw24%

Preußen Münster II30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC GuterslohExpected goals in this matchPreußen Münster II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.30

FC Gutersloh

1.67

Preußen Münster II

1.30

FC Gutersloh creates 28% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 88 away

1.83

creates per match

1.72

0.89

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

FC Gutersloh

1.83

Preußen Münster II

1.72

allows per match

FC Gutersloh

0.89

Preußen Münster II

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Gutersloh+0.00on par

Preußen Münster II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Gutersloh ↓

Preußen Münster II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

FC Gutersloh or draw

70%

FC Gutersloh or Preußen Münster II

76%

Draw or Preußen Münster II

54%

Winning margin

FC Gutersloh wins by 2+

24%

Preußen Münster II wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

FC Gutersloh 1+ goals

81%

FC Gutersloh 2+ goals

50%

FC Gutersloh 3+ goals

23%

Preußen Münster II 1+ goals

73%

Preußen Münster II 2+ goals

37%

Preußen Münster II 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

FC Gutersloh (draw refunded)

61%

Preußen Münster II (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Gutersloh at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.89 · 36 matches

Preußen Münster II away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.51 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Gutersloh attack 1.83 + Preußen Münster II defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.67

Preußen Münster II attack 1.72 + FC Gutersloh defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

FC Gutersloh scores more

46%

level

24%

Preußen Münster II scores more

30%

FC Gutersloh at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "FC Gutersloh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff