Preston 2–1 Middlesbrough: Result & Stats

Preston

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Middlesbrough

E. Riis 78'

S. Þórðarson 28'

D. Burgzorg 52'

1/25/2025

Championship · Round 29Deepdale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Preston25%

×Draw28%

Middlesbrough47%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PrestonExpected goals in this matchMiddlesbrough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.86

1.31

Preston

0.86

Middlesbrough

1.31

Middlesbrough creates 52% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 7 away

0.79

creates per match

1.42

1.21

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Preston

0.79

Middlesbrough

1.42

allows per match

Preston

1.21

Middlesbrough

0.94

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

-0.28scores less than expected

finishing

Preston+0.21scores more

Middlesbrough-0.28scores less

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

Middlesbrough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–115%

0–210%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Preston or draw

53%

Preston or Middlesbrough

72%

Draw or Middlesbrough

75%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+

8%

Middlesbrough wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals

58%

Preston 2+ goals

21%

Preston 3+ goals

6%

Middlesbrough 1+ goals

73%

Middlesbrough 2+ goals

38%

Middlesbrough 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)

34%

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.21 · 13 matches

Middlesbrough away — creates 1.42, concedes 0.94 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 0.79 + Middlesbrough defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.86

Middlesbrough attack 1.42 + Preston defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Preston scores more

25%

level

28%

Middlesbrough scores more

47%

Middlesbrough at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Middlesbrough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

D. Burgzorg

Middlesbrough · M

8.0

Match Events

11'

M. Forss← E. Latte Lath

12'

Sam Greenwood

28'

S. Þórðarson↳ M. Osmajić

41'

Luke Ayling

45+1'

Jayden Meghoma

52'

D. Burgzorg↳ B. Doak

60'

R. Ledson← S. Þórðarson

61'

R. Brady← J. Meghoma

72'

E. Riis← M. Osmajić

72'

D. Holmes← S. Greenwood

74'

R. Giles← Neto Borges

78'

E. Riis↳ M. Frøkjær-Jensen

81'

A. Gilbert← F. Azaz

85'

Ryan Ledson

85'

W. Keane← M. Frøkjær-Jensen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PrestonMiddlesbrough

Overview

42%Possession58%

10Total Shots16

0.41Expected Goals (xG)1.33

6Corners4

11Fouls6

Shots

10Total Shots16

4On Target6

3Off Target6

3Blocked4

5Inside Box11

5Outside Box5

Passing

42%Possession58%

359Total Passes513

261Accurate Passes412

73%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

-1.24Goals Prevented-1.24

Discipline

11Fouls6

3Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1