Middlesbrough 4–0 Preston: Result & Stats

Middlesbrough

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Preston

T. Conway 54', 28'

M. Whittaker 42'

A. Browne 9'

1/24/2026

Championship · Round 29Riverside Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 54+ matches

Middlesbrough52%

×Draw25%

Preston23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MiddlesbroughExpected goals in this matchPreston

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.98

Middlesbrough

1.61

Preston

0.98

Middlesbrough creates 64% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 54 away

1.56

creates per match

0.99

0.97

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Middlesbrough

1.56

Preston

0.99

allows per match

Middlesbrough

0.97

Preston

1.67

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

+0.01on par

finishing

Middlesbrough-0.14scores less

Preston+0.01on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Middlesbrough ↓

Preston →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Middlesbrough or draw

77%

Middlesbrough or Preston

75%

Draw or Preston

48%

Winning margin

Middlesbrough wins by 2+

28%

Preston wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Middlesbrough 1+ goals

80%

Middlesbrough 2+ goals

48%

Middlesbrough 3+ goals

22%

Preston 1+ goals

62%

Preston 2+ goals

26%

Preston 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)

69%

Preston (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Middlesbrough at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.97 · 64 matches

Preston away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.67 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Middlesbrough attack 1.56 + Preston defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.61

Preston attack 0.99 + Middlesbrough defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Middlesbrough scores more

52%

level

25%

Preston scores more

23%

Middlesbrough at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Middlesbrough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

M. Whittaker

Middlesbrough · F

8.9

Match Events

9'

A. Browne↳ M. Targett

26'

28'

42'

50'

54'

58'

58'

J. Thompson← B. Whiteman

58'

M. Frokjaer-Jensen← A. Devine

60'

S. Silvera← M. Targett

61'

D. Burgzorg← A. Morris

61'

A. Gilbert← T. Conway

74'

R. McGree← H. Hackney

76'

A. Vukcevic← J. Lewis

76'

M. Smith← D. Jebbison

82'

Jordan Thompson

85'

F. Munroe← A. Malanda

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MiddlesbroughPreston

Overview

67%Possession33%

16Total Shots4

2.72Expected Goals (xG)0.40

8Corners3

11Fouls19

Shots

16Total Shots4

8On Target1

4Off Target1

4Blocked2

8Inside Box4

8Outside Box0

Passing

67%Possession33%

542Total Passes264

489Accurate Passes204

90%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

-1.78Goals Prevented-1.78

Discipline

11Fouls19

0Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

3Offsides1

Championship: Middlesbrough 4–0 Preston

Middlesbrough beat Preston 4-0 in Championship on January 24, 2026.

Goals: A. Browne (9'), T. Conway (28', 54'), M. Whittaker (42').

Middlesbrough controlled possession (67%) and registered 16 shots to 4.

The match was played at Riverside Stadium in Middlesbrough.

Middlesbrough vs Preston — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Middlesbrough 4–0 Preston