Preston 2–1 Middlesbrough: Result & Stats

Preston

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Middlesbrough

E. Riis 60'

L. Millar 23'

F. Azaz 57'

2/14/2024

Championship · Round 32Deepdale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Preston26%

×Draw29%

Middlesbrough45%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PrestonExpected goals in this matchMiddlesbrough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.90

1.27

Preston

0.90

Middlesbrough

1.27

Middlesbrough creates 41% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 8 away

0.82

creates per match

1.36

1.19

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Preston

0.82

Middlesbrough

1.36

allows per match

Preston

1.19

Middlesbrough

0.97

+0.25scores more than expected

finishing

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

Preston+0.25scores more

Middlesbrough-0.23scores less

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

Middlesbrough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–115%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Preston or draw

55%

Preston or Middlesbrough

71%

Draw or Middlesbrough

74%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+

9%

Middlesbrough wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals

59%

Preston 2+ goals

23%

Preston 3+ goals

6%

Middlesbrough 1+ goals

72%

Middlesbrough 2+ goals

36%

Middlesbrough 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)

37%

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.19 · 14 matches

Middlesbrough away — creates 1.36, concedes 0.97 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 0.82 + Middlesbrough defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.90

Middlesbrough attack 1.36 + Preston defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Preston scores more

26%

level

29%

Middlesbrough scores more

45%

Middlesbrough at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Middlesbrough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

L. Millar

Preston · M

7.7

Match Events

9'

G. Cunningham← A. Hughes

23'

L. Millar

57'

F. Azaz↳ J. Howson

60'

E. Riis

69'

S. Silvera← S. Greenwood

73'

A. Dijksteel← L. Ayling

75'

J. Whatmough← L. Lindsay

76'

L. Stewart← W. Keane

76'

M. Osmajić← E. Riis

83'

A. McCann← B. Whiteman

86'

Jordan Storey

89'

L. O'Brien← H. Hackney

90+2'

Alan Browne

90+6'

Riley McGree

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PrestonMiddlesbrough

Overview

38%Possession62%

7Total Shots20

1.17Expected Goals (xG)0.92

2Corners7

10Fouls10

Shots

7Total Shots20

3On Target4

0Off Target8

4Blocked8

4Inside Box8

3Outside Box12

Passing

38%Possession62%

342Total Passes567

227Accurate Passes457

66%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls10

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides3