Preston 2–1 Middlesbrough: Result & Stats

Preston

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Middlesbrough

J. Storey 90+1'

E. Riis 35'

C. Akpom 7'

10/29/2022

Championship · Round 18Deepdale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 59+ matches

Preston34%

×Draw27%

Middlesbrough39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PrestonExpected goals in this matchMiddlesbrough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.28

Preston

1.19

Middlesbrough

1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 59 home / 64 away

1.17

creates per match

1.37

1.19

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Preston

1.17

Middlesbrough

1.37

allows per match

Preston

1.19

Middlesbrough

1.22

+0.05on par

finishing

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

Preston+0.05on par

Middlesbrough+0.19scores more

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

Middlesbrough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Preston or draw

61%

Preston or Middlesbrough

73%

Draw or Middlesbrough

66%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+

14%

Middlesbrough wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals

70%

Preston 2+ goals

33%

Preston 3+ goals

12%

Middlesbrough 1+ goals

72%

Middlesbrough 2+ goals

37%

Middlesbrough 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)

47%

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.19 · 59 matches

Middlesbrough away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.22 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 1.17 + Middlesbrough defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.19

Middlesbrough attack 1.37 + Preston defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Preston scores more

34%

level

27%

Middlesbrough scores more

39%

Middlesbrough at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Middlesbrough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

C. Akpom

Middlesbrough · F

7.9

Match Events

7'

24'

29'

34'

35'

49'

56'

R. Ledson← B. Whiteman

71'

M. Forss← Rodrigo Muniz

75'

Álvaro Fernandez

75'

A. Hughes← R. Brady

86'

D. Johnson← Álvaro Fernández

86'

C. Evans← B. Woodburn

86'

A. Mowatt← R. McGree

90'

Chuba Akpom

90+1'

J. Storey↳ L. Lindsay

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PrestonMiddlesbrough

Overview

51%Possession49%

13Total Shots9

2Corners4

11Fouls10

Shots

13Total Shots9

4On Target1

3Off Target3

6Blocked5

7Inside Box8

6Outside Box1

Passing

51%Possession49%

508Total Passes471

419Accurate Passes384

82%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls10

3Yellow Cards3

5Offsides1