Preston 4–1 Middlesbrough: Result & Stats

Preston

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Middlesbrough

E. Riis 74' (pen), 53'

D. Fry 35' (OG)

A. Browne 24'

M. Tavernier 48'

5/7/2022

Championship · Round 46Deepdale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 59+ matches

Preston34%

×Draw27%

Middlesbrough39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PrestonExpected goals in this matchMiddlesbrough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.28

Preston

1.19

Middlesbrough

1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 59 home / 64 away

1.17

creates per match

1.37

1.19

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Preston

1.17

Middlesbrough

1.37

allows per match

Preston

1.19

Middlesbrough

1.22

+0.05on par

finishing

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

Preston+0.05on par

Middlesbrough+0.19scores more

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

Middlesbrough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Preston or draw

61%

Preston or Middlesbrough

73%

Draw or Middlesbrough

66%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+

14%

Middlesbrough wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals

70%

Preston 2+ goals

33%

Preston 3+ goals

12%

Middlesbrough 1+ goals

72%

Middlesbrough 2+ goals

37%

Middlesbrough 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)

47%

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.19 · 59 matches

Middlesbrough away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.22 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 1.17 + Middlesbrough defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.19

Middlesbrough attack 1.37 + Preston defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Preston scores more

34%

level

27%

Middlesbrough scores more

39%

Middlesbrough at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Middlesbrough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

E. Riis

Preston · F

8.6

Match Events

24'

A. Browne↳ B. Potts

35'

D. FryOwn goal

45'

45'

45'

45'

48'

M. Tavernier↳ A. Dijksteel

53'

E. Riis↳ C. Archer

56'

Alistair McCann

58'

Anfernee Dijksteel

62'

F. Balogun← A. Šporar

62'

J. Coburn← D. Watmore

66'

Dael Fry

66'

A. Connolly← A. Dijksteel

72'

Isaiah Jones

73'

Paddy McNair

74'

E. RiisPenalty

80'

P. Huntington← Bambo Diaby

82'

M. O'Neil← E. Riis

84'

Matt Crooks

86'

R. Ledson← B. Whiteman

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PrestonMiddlesbrough

Overview

49%Possession51%

15Total Shots12

7Corners0

14Fouls13

Shots

15Total Shots12

10On Target4

2Off Target4

3Blocked4

14Inside Box8

1Outside Box4

Passing

49%Possession51%

404Total Passes420

333Accurate Passes339

82%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

3Saves7

Discipline

14Fouls13

3Yellow Cards6

0Red Cards1

1Offsides0

Match Recap: Preston vs Middlesbrough

Preston beat Middlesbrough 4-1 in Championship on May 7, 2022.

Goals: A. Browne (24'), D. Fry (35' o.g.), M. Tavernier (48'), E. Riis (53', 74' pen).

Middlesbrough controlled possession (51%) and registered 12 shots to 15.

The match was played at Deepdale in Preston.

Preston vs Middlesbrough — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Preston vs Middlesbrough