Preston 1–0 Luton: Result & Stats | Championship

Preston

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Luton

W. Keane 39'

8/24/2024

Championship · Round 3Deepdale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Preston45%

×Draw27%

Luton28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PrestonExpected goals in this matchLuton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.02

Preston

1.39

Luton

1.02

Preston creates 36% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 14 away

1.15

creates per match

0.85

1.20

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Preston

1.15

Luton

0.85

allows per match

Preston

1.20

Luton

1.62

+0.04on par

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Preston+0.04on par

Luton-0.06on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

Luton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Preston or draw

72%

Preston or Luton

73%

Draw or Luton

55%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+

22%

Luton wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals

75%

Preston 2+ goals

40%

Preston 3+ goals

16%

Luton 1+ goals

64%

Luton 2+ goals

27%

Luton 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)

62%

Luton (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.20 · 58 matches

Luton away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.62 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 1.15 + Luton defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.39

Luton attack 0.85 + Preston defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Preston scores more

45%

level

27%

Luton scores more

28%

Preston at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Preston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

L. Lindsay

Preston · D

8.3

Match Events

39'

W. Keane↳ E. Riis

41'

43'

54'

58'

64'

R. Ledson← M. Frøkjær-Jensen

67'

67'

72'

73'

74'

S. Greenwood← S. Þórðarson

76'

78'

79'

81'

85'

Z. Nelson← S. Baptiste

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PrestonLuton

Overview

42%Possession58%

6Total Shots17

0.26Expected Goals (xG)1.64

2Corners13

16Fouls10

Shots

6Total Shots17

2On Target4

2Off Target7

2Blocked6

4Inside Box13

2Outside Box4

Passing

42%Possession58%

323Total Passes415

230Accurate Passes327

71%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

-0.14Goals Prevented-0.14

Discipline

16Fouls10

6Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1

Championship: Preston 1–0 Luton

Preston beat Luton 1-0 in Championship on August 24, 2024.

Goals: W. Keane (39').

Luton controlled possession (58%) and registered 17 shots to 6.

The match was played at Deepdale in Preston.

Preston vs Luton — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Preston 1–0 Luton