Preston 1–1 Luton: Result & Stats | Championship

Preston

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Luton

T. Parrott 81' (pen)

C. Morris 73'

2/15/2023

Championship · Round 32Deepdale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Preston45%

×Draw27%

Luton28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PrestonExpected goals in this matchLuton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.02

Preston

1.37

Luton

1.02

Preston creates 34% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 21 away

1.15

creates per match

0.85

1.20

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Preston

1.15

Luton

0.85

allows per match

Preston

1.20

Luton

1.59

+0.04on par

finishing

-0.04on par

finishing

Preston+0.04on par

Luton-0.04on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

Luton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Preston or draw

72%

Preston or Luton

73%

Draw or Luton

55%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+

21%

Luton wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals

75%

Preston 2+ goals

40%

Preston 3+ goals

16%

Luton 1+ goals

64%

Luton 2+ goals

27%

Luton 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)

62%

Luton (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.20 · 58 matches

Luton away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.59 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 1.15 + Luton defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.37

Luton attack 0.85 + Preston defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Preston scores more

45%

level

27%

Luton scores more

28%

Preston at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Preston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

J. Clark

Luton · F

8.2

Match Events

19'

Alistair McCann

50'

Benjamin Whiteman

70'

C. Woodrow← E. Adebayo

70'

H. Lansbury← P. Mpanzu

72'

B. Woodburn← B. Potts

73'

C. Morris

81'

T. ParrottPenalty

82'

84'

85'

87'

89'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PrestonLuton

Overview

46%Possession54%

7Total Shots18

2Corners10

7Fouls13

Shots

7Total Shots18

2On Target3

3Off Target8

2Blocked7

4Inside Box15

3Outside Box3

Passing

46%Possession54%

342Total Passes392

214Accurate Passes298

63%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

7Fouls13

2Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

0Offsides3

Match Recap: Preston vs Luton

Preston and Luton drew 1-1 in Championship on February 15, 2023.

Goals: C. Morris (73'), T. Parrott (81' pen).

Luton controlled possession (54%) and registered 18 shots to 7.

The match was played at Deepdale in Preston.

Preston vs Luton — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Preston vs Luton