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Luton vs Preston — Championship 2018

Luton
Luton
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Preston
Preston
Bambo Diaby 59' (OG)
L. Berry 42', 9'
F. Onyedinma 28'
3/16/2022ChampionshipChampionship · Round 38Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Luton50%
×Draw26%
Preston24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luton
1.53
Preston
0.96

Luton creates 59% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 54 away

creates per match

Luton
1.39
Preston
0.99

allows per match

Luton
0.93
Preston
1.67

finishing

Luton-0.29scores less
Preston+0.01on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Preston →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Luton or draw
76%
Luton or Preston
74%
Draw or Preston
50%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+
26%
Preston wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals
78%
Luton 2+ goals
45%
Luton 3+ goals
20%
Preston 1+ goals
62%
Preston 2+ goals
25%
Preston 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)
68%
Preston (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.93 · 21 matches

Preston away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.67 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 1.39 + Preston defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.53

Preston attack 0.99 + Luton defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Luton scores more
50%
level
26%
Preston scores more
24%

Luton at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
L. BerryLutonLuton · F
8.5

Match Events

9'
L. Berry
23'
F. Onyedinma← R. Burke
27'
Andrew Hughes
28'
F. Onyedinma↳ J. Bree
42'
L. Berry↳ H. Cornick
46'
C. Evans← E. Riis
46'
J. Murphy← A. McCann
59'
Bambo DiabyOwn goal
75'
Benjamin Whiteman
77'
D. Hylton← H. Cornick
80'
S. Sinclair← B. Potts
81'
Carlos Gomes← L. Berry
87'
Allan Campbell

Possession

40%Luton

Shots

12Luton

Pass accuracy

47%Luton

Statistics

LutonPreston
Overview
40%Possession60%
12Total Shots10
4Corners3
8Fouls13
Shots
12Total Shots10
5On Target2
4Off Target3
3Blocked5
10Inside Box6
2Outside Box4
Passing
40%Possession60%
308Total Passes478
199Accurate Passes349
65%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
8Fouls13
1Yellow Cards2
4Offsides0

Luton 4 – 0 Preston

Luton beat Preston 4-0 in Championship on March 16, 2022.

Goals: L. Berry (9', 42'), F. Onyedinma (28'), Bambo Diaby (59' o.g.).

Preston controlled possession (60%) and registered 10 shots to 12.

The match was played at Kenilworth Road in Luton, Bedfordshire.