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Preston vs Luton — Championship 2018

Preston
Preston
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Luton
Luton
E. Riis 45+3' (pen), 27'
10/30/2021ChampionshipChampionship · Round 15Deepdale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Preston45%
×Draw27%
Luton28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Preston
1.37
Luton
1.02

Preston creates 34% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 21 away

creates per match

Preston
1.15
Luton
0.85

allows per match

Preston
1.20
Luton
1.59

finishing

Preston+0.04on par
Luton-0.04on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

Luton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Preston or draw
72%
Preston or Luton
73%
Draw or Luton
55%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+
21%
Luton wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals
75%
Preston 2+ goals
40%
Preston 3+ goals
16%
Luton 1+ goals
64%
Luton 2+ goals
27%
Luton 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)
62%
Luton (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.20 · 58 matches

Luton away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.59 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 1.15 + Luton defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.37

Luton attack 0.85 + Preston defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Preston scores more
45%
level
27%
Luton scores more
28%

Preston at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Preston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
E. RiisPrestonPreston · F
8.3

Match Events

24'
Amari Bell
27'
E. Riis↳ T. Barkhuizen
37'
Tom Lockyer
38'
Alan Browne
45+3'
E. RiisPenalty
46'
A. Muskwe← G. Rea
46'
H. Lansbury← S. Bradley
70'
F. Onyedinma← H. Cornick
76'
S. Sinclair← S. Maguire
90+2'
R. Ledson← A. McCann
90+2'
B. Potts← E. Riis

Possession

53%Preston

Shots

14Preston

Pass accuracy

50%Preston

Statistics

PrestonLuton
Overview
53%Possession47%
14Total Shots8
7Corners5
20Fouls13
Shots
14Total Shots8
5On Target4
6Off Target3
3Blocked1
11Inside Box4
3Outside Box4
Passing
53%Possession47%
380Total Passes332
243Accurate Passes209
64%Pass Accuracy63%
Goalkeeping
4Saves3
Discipline
20Fouls13
1Yellow Cards2
1Offsides4

Preston 2 – 0 Luton

Preston beat Luton 2-0 in Championship on October 30, 2021.

Goals: E. Riis (27', 45+3' pen).

Preston controlled possession (53%) and registered 14 shots to 8.

The match was played at Deepdale in Preston.