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Preston vs Charlton — Championship 2025

Preston
Preston
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Charlton
Charlton
10/4/2025ChampionshipChampionship · Round 9Deepdale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Preston48%
×Draw27%
Charlton25%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Preston
1.44
Charlton
0.97

Preston creates 48% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 34 away

creates per match

Preston
1.23
Charlton
0.82

allows per match

Preston
1.13
Charlton
1.65

finishing

Preston+0.00on par
Charlton+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

Charlton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Preston or draw
75%
Preston or Charlton
73%
Draw or Charlton
52%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+
24%
Charlton wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals
76%
Preston 2+ goals
42%
Preston 3+ goals
18%
Charlton 1+ goals
62%
Charlton 2+ goals
25%
Charlton 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)
65%
Charlton (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.13 · 47 matches

Charlton away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.65 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 1.23 + Charlton defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.44

Charlton attack 0.82 + Preston defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Preston scores more
48%
level
27%
Charlton scores more
25%

Preston at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Preston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championship: Preston 2–0 Charlton

Preston beat Charlton 2-0 in Championship on October 4, 2025.

The match was played at Deepdale in Preston.