Charlton 0–1 Preston: Result & Stats | Championship

Charlton

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Preston

P. Gallagher 58' (pen)

11/3/2019

Championship · Round 15The Valley

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Charlton42%

×Draw27%

Preston31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CharltonExpected goals in this matchPreston

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.10

Charlton

1.33

Preston

1.10

Charlton creates 21% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 53 away

1.05

creates per match

0.94

1.26

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Charlton

1.05

Preston

0.94

allows per match

Charlton

1.26

Preston

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Charlton+0.00on par

Preston+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlton ↓

Preston →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Charlton or draw

69%

Charlton or Preston

73%

Draw or Preston

58%

Winning margin

Charlton wins by 2+

19%

Preston wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Charlton 1+ goals

74%

Charlton 2+ goals

38%

Charlton 3+ goals

15%

Preston 1+ goals

67%

Preston 2+ goals

30%

Preston 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Charlton (draw refunded)

58%

Preston (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlton at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.26 · 38 matches

Preston away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.60 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlton attack 1.05 + Preston defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.33

Preston attack 0.94 + Charlton defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Charlton scores more

42%

level

27%

Preston scores more

31%

Charlton at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Charlton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

D. Fisher

Preston · D

7.9

Match Events

25'

Naby Sarr

31'

P. Gallagher← D. Johnson

46'

J. Leko← N. Sarr

58'

P. GallagherPenalty

65'

66'

74'

74'

80'

81'

89'

90'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CharltonPreston

Overview

47%Possession53%

8Total Shots17

3Corners9

16Fouls10

Shots

8Total Shots17

1On Target5

4Off Target9

3Blocked3

5Inside Box9

3Outside Box8

Passing

47%Possession53%

321Total Passes338

215Accurate Passes233

67%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

16Fouls10

3Yellow Cards5

1Offsides1