Preston 2–1 Charlton: Result & Stats | Championship

Preston

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Charlton

P. Bauer 52'

J. Harrop 31'

A. Green 5'

1/18/2020

Championship · Round 28Deepdale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Preston47%

×Draw27%

Charlton26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PrestonExpected goals in this matchCharlton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.98

Preston

1.43

Charlton

0.98

Preston creates 46% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 34 away

1.21

creates per match

0.82

1.15

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Preston

1.21

Charlton

0.82

allows per match

Preston

1.15

Charlton

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Preston+0.00on par

Charlton+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

Charlton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Preston or draw

74%

Preston or Charlton

73%

Draw or Charlton

53%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+

23%

Charlton wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals

76%

Preston 2+ goals

42%

Preston 3+ goals

17%

Charlton 1+ goals

62%

Charlton 2+ goals

26%

Charlton 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)

65%

Charlton (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.15 · 52 matches

Charlton away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.65 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 1.21 + Charlton defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.43

Charlton attack 0.82 + Preston defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Preston scores more

47%

level

27%

Charlton scores more

26%

Preston at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Preston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

J. Harrop

Preston · M

8.5

Match Events

5'

31'

52'

62'

62'

A. Morgan← A. Oshilaja

62'

E. Öztümer← J. Williams

64'

D. Nugent← S. Maguire

68'

T. Hemed← A. Green

82'

R. Ledson← D. Johnson

90'

B. Potts← J. Harrop

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PrestonCharlton

Overview

61%Possession39%

14Total Shots6

3Corners4

7Fouls6

Shots

14Total Shots6

8On Target2

5Off Target1

1Blocked3

8Inside Box5

6Outside Box1

Passing

61%Possession39%

551Total Passes333

429Accurate Passes212

78%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

7Fouls6

1Yellow Cards0

1Offsides0