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Preston vs Bristol City — Championship 2025

Preston
Preston
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bristol City
Bristol City
9/27/2025ChampionshipChampionship · Round 7Deepdale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Preston35%
×Draw28%
Bristol City36%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Preston
1.15
Bristol City
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 23 away

creates per match

Preston
0.98
Bristol City
1.02

allows per match

Preston
1.32
Bristol City
1.32

finishing

Preston+0.26scores more
Bristol City-0.19scores less

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

Bristol City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Preston or draw
64%
Preston or Bristol City
72%
Draw or Bristol City
65%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+
15%
Bristol City wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals
68%
Preston 2+ goals
32%
Preston 3+ goals
11%
Bristol City 1+ goals
69%
Bristol City 2+ goals
33%
Bristol City 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)
49%
Bristol City (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.32 · 25 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.32 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 0.98 + Bristol City defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.15

Bristol City attack 1.02 + Preston defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Preston scores more
35%
level
28%
Bristol City scores more
36%

Bristol City at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Bristol City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
D. IversenPrestonPreston · G
8.9

Match Events

30'
Emil Riis Jacobsen
36'
Benjamin Whiteman
36'
O. Offiah← P. Valentin
57'
Andrew Hughes
63'
H. Armstrong← A. McCann
63'
M. Smith← L. Dobbin
72'
Harrison Armstrong
75'
Alfie Devine
83'
A. Vukcevic← T. Small
83'
S. T. Thordarson← A. Devine
85'
G. Tanner← J. Knight
85'
S. Armstrong← E. Riis
90+3'
Y. Hirakawa← S. Twine

Possession

47%Preston

Shots

7Preston

Pass accuracy

50%Preston

Statistics

PrestonBristol
Overview
47%Possession53%
7Total Shots19
0.42Expected Goals (xG)2.32
2Corners8
9Fouls10
Shots
7Total Shots19
2On Target7
2Off Target8
3Blocked4
6Inside Box10
1Outside Box9
Passing
47%Possession53%
345Total Passes385
251Accurate Passes284
73%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
8Saves2
0.91Goals Prevented0.91
Discipline
9Fouls10
4Yellow Cards1
1Offsides3

Match Recap: Preston vs Bristol City

Preston and Bristol City drew 0-0 in Championship on September 27, 2025.

Bristol City controlled possession (53%) and registered 19 shots to 7.

The match was played at Deepdale in Preston.