Preston 2–0 Bristol City: Result & Stats

Preston

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bristol City

W. Keane 77', 65'

1/13/2024

Championship · Round 27Deepdale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 30+ matches

Preston39%

×Draw27%

Bristol City33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PrestonExpected goals in this matchBristol City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.15

Preston

1.27

Bristol City

1.15

Preston creates 10% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 32 away

1.11

creates per match

1.05

1.24

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Preston

1.11

Bristol City

1.05

allows per match

Preston

1.24

Bristol City

1.43

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

-0.08on par

finishing

Preston+0.16scores more

Bristol City-0.08on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

Bristol City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Preston or draw

67%

Preston or Bristol City

73%

Draw or Bristol City

61%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+

17%

Bristol City wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals

72%

Preston 2+ goals

36%

Preston 3+ goals

14%

Bristol City 1+ goals

68%

Bristol City 2+ goals

32%

Bristol City 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)

54%

Bristol City (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.24 · 30 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.43 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 1.11 + Bristol City defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.27

Bristol City attack 1.05 + Preston defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Preston scores more

39%

level

27%

Bristol City scores more

33%

Preston at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Preston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

W. Keane

Preston · F

8.7

Match Events

46'

W. Keane← M. Osmajić

46'

M. Frøkjær-Jensen← A. Browne

46'

50'

57'

65'

75'

R. McCrorie← A. Mehmeti

75'

N. Wells← S. Bell

75'

M. James← T. Gardner-Hickman

77'

W. Keane↳ E. Riis

80'

R. Brady← B. Potts

89'

A. King← J. Knight

89'

H. Cornick← T. Conway

90+5'

Harry Cornick

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PrestonBristol

Overview

49%Possession51%

12Total Shots15

2.13Expected Goals (xG)0.81

8Corners6

13Fouls7

Shots

12Total Shots15

7On Target6

2Off Target6

3Blocked3

10Inside Box8

2Outside Box7

Passing

49%Possession51%

445Total Passes474

302Accurate Passes341

68%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

6Saves5

Discipline

13Fouls7

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides0