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Bristol City vs Preston — Championship 2025

Bristol City
Bristol City
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Preston
Preston
A. Devine 70'
L. Dobbin 8'
1/4/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 26Ashton Gate Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Bristol City36%
×Draw27%
Preston37%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bristol City
1.25
Preston
1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 21 away

creates per match

Bristol City
1.04
Preston
1.12

allows per match

Bristol City
1.40
Preston
1.45

finishing

Bristol City-0.09on par
Preston+0.12scores more

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol City ↓

Preston →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Bristol City or draw
63%
Bristol City or Preston
73%
Draw or Preston
64%

Winning margin

Bristol City wins by 2+
16%
Preston wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Bristol City 1+ goals
71%
Bristol City 2+ goals
36%
Bristol City 3+ goals
13%
Preston 1+ goals
72%
Preston 2+ goals
36%
Preston 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Bristol City (draw refunded)
50%
Preston (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol City at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.40 · 20 matches

Preston away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.45 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol City attack 1.04 + Preston defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.25

Preston attack 1.12 + Bristol City defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Bristol City scores more
36%
level
27%
Preston scores more
37%

Preston at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Preston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
Neto BorgesBristol CityBristol City · M
7.7

Match Events

8'
L. Dobbin↳ J. Thompson
34'
Jordan Storey
46'
P. Valentin← B. Potts
54'
C. Pring← R. Atkinson
54'
S. Morsy← S. Twine
55'
E. Riis← A. Mehmeti
67'
M. Frokjaer-Jensen← M. Osmajic
67'
D. Jebbison← L. Dobbin
69'
Jordan Thompson
70'
A. Devine
73'
A. McCann← J. Thompson
77'
L. Lindsay← O. Offiah
78'
S. Bell← S. Armstrong
90+1'
Y. Hirakawa← R. McCrorie

Possession

64%Bristol

Shots

11Bristol

Pass accuracy

54%Bristol

Statistics

BristolPreston
Overview
64%Possession36%
11Total Shots12
0.42Expected Goals (xG)1.08
6Corners3
11Fouls14
Shots
11Total Shots12
2On Target3
7Off Target5
2Blocked4
6Inside Box7
5Outside Box5
Passing
64%Possession36%
609Total Passes352
519Accurate Passes253
85%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
0.07Goals Prevented0.07
Discipline
11Fouls14
0Yellow Cards2
5Offsides4

Match Recap: Bristol City vs Preston

Preston beat Bristol City 2-0 in Championship on January 4, 2026.

Goals: L. Dobbin (8'), A. Devine (70').

Bristol City controlled possession (64%) and registered 11 shots to 12.

The match was played at Ashton Gate Stadium in Bristol.