Preston 1–2 Bristol City: Result & Stats

Preston

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Bristol City

C. Evans 61'

S. Bell 45+3'

M. Sykes 6'

2/4/2023

Championship · Round 30Deepdale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 59+ matches

Preston39%

×Draw28%

Bristol City33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PrestonExpected goals in this matchBristol City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.11

Preston

1.25

Bristol City

1.11

Preston creates 13% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 60 away

1.17

creates per match

1.04

1.19

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Preston

1.17

Bristol City

1.04

allows per match

Preston

1.19

Bristol City

1.33

+0.05on par

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Preston+0.05on par

Bristol City-0.06on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

Bristol City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Preston or draw

67%

Preston or Bristol City

72%

Draw or Bristol City

61%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+

17%

Bristol City wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals

71%

Preston 2+ goals

36%

Preston 3+ goals

13%

Bristol City 1+ goals

67%

Bristol City 2+ goals

30%

Bristol City 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)

55%

Bristol City (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.19 · 59 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.33 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 1.17 + Bristol City defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.25

Bristol City attack 1.04 + Preston defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Preston scores more

39%

level

28%

Bristol City scores more

33%

Preston at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Preston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

A. Browne

Preston · M

8.0

Match Events

6'

M. Sykes

31'

J. Williams← K. Naismith

33'

Jordan Storey

45+3'

S. Bell↳ N. Wells

46'

G. Cunningham← L. Lindsay

50'

61'

63'

68'

68'

70'

72'

81'

82'

82'

Álvaro Fernández← R. Brady

88'

A. Weimann← S. Bell

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PrestonBristol

Overview

59%Possession41%

17Total Shots6

5Corners3

10Fouls12

Shots

17Total Shots6

6On Target3

5Off Target1

6Blocked2

9Inside Box3

8Outside Box3

Passing

59%Possession41%

410Total Passes300

248Accurate Passes171

60%Pass Accuracy57%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

10Fouls12

1Yellow Cards4

0Offsides2

Match Recap: Preston vs Bristol City

Bristol City beat Preston 2-1 in Championship on February 4, 2023.

Goals: M. Sykes (6'), S. Bell (45+3'), C. Evans (61').

Preston controlled possession (59%) and registered 17 shots to 6.

The match was played at Deepdale in Preston.

Preston vs Bristol City — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Preston vs Bristol City