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Preston vs Bristol City — Championship 2018

Preston
Preston
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Bristol City
Bristol City
E. Riis 90+5', 52'
A. Semenyo 81'
C. Martin 12'
1/29/2022ChampionshipChampionship · Round 29Deepdale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 62+ matches

Preston39%
×Draw28%
Bristol City34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Preston
1.24
Bristol City
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 62 home / 62 away

creates per match

Preston
1.14
Bristol City
1.10

allows per match

Preston
1.17
Bristol City
1.34

finishing

Preston+0.07on par
Bristol City-0.10scores less

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

Bristol City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Preston or draw
66%
Preston or Bristol City
72%
Draw or Bristol City
61%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+
17%
Bristol City wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals
71%
Preston 2+ goals
35%
Preston 3+ goals
13%
Bristol City 1+ goals
68%
Bristol City 2+ goals
32%
Bristol City 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)
53%
Bristol City (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.17 · 62 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.34 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 1.14 + Bristol City defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.24

Bristol City attack 1.10 + Preston defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Preston scores more
39%
level
28%
Bristol City scores more
34%

Preston at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Preston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
E. RiisPrestonPreston · F
8.2

Match Events

12'
C. Martin↳ A. Weimann
46'
J. Earl← G. Cunningham
46'
A. McCann← R. Ledson
52'
E. Riis
64'
J. Williams← C. ODowda
79'
C. Evans← C. Archer
81'
A. Semenyo↳ H. Massengo
82'
R. Cundy← J. Dasilva
84'
Z. Vyner← A. Scott
90+5'
E. Riis↳ B. Potts

Possession

58%Preston

Shots

10Preston

Pass accuracy

52%Preston

Statistics

PrestonBristol
Overview
58%Possession42%
10Total Shots12
3Corners6
9Fouls10
Shots
10Total Shots12
4On Target3
3Off Target6
3Blocked3
5Inside Box9
5Outside Box3
Passing
58%Possession42%
508Total Passes358
396Accurate Passes255
78%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
9Fouls10
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Preston vs Bristol City

Preston and Bristol City drew 2-2 in Championship on January 29, 2022.

Goals: C. Martin (12'), E. Riis (52', 90+5'), A. Semenyo (81').

Preston controlled possession (58%) and registered 10 shots to 12.

The match was played at Deepdale in Preston.