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Preston vs Bristol City — Championship 2018

Preston
Preston
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Bristol City
Bristol City
D. Johnson 21' (pen)
12/18/2020ChampionshipChampionship · Round 20Deepdale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 62+ matches

Preston39%
×Draw28%
Bristol City34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Preston
1.24
Bristol City
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 62 home / 62 away

creates per match

Preston
1.14
Bristol City
1.10

allows per match

Preston
1.17
Bristol City
1.34

finishing

Preston+0.07on par
Bristol City-0.10scores less

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

Bristol City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Preston or draw
66%
Preston or Bristol City
72%
Draw or Bristol City
61%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+
17%
Bristol City wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals
71%
Preston 2+ goals
35%
Preston 3+ goals
13%
Bristol City 1+ goals
68%
Bristol City 2+ goals
32%
Bristol City 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)
53%
Bristol City (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.17 · 62 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.34 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 1.14 + Bristol City defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.24

Bristol City attack 1.10 + Preston defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Preston scores more
39%
level
28%
Bristol City scores more
34%

Preston at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Preston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
D. RuddPrestonPreston · G
7.6

Match Events

21'
D. JohnsonPenalty
46'
A. Semenyo← T. Moore
46'
T. Bakinson← H. Massengo
51'
Darnell Fisher
69'
E. Riis← S. Maguire
69'
J. Rafferty← D. Fisher
76'
T. Bayliss← P. Gallagher
80'
J. Stockley← D. Johnson

Possession

52%Preston

Shots

14Preston

Pass accuracy

51%Preston

Statistics

PrestonBristol
Overview
52%Possession48%
14Total Shots8
9Corners7
14Fouls10
Shots
14Total Shots8
4On Target3
6Off Target2
4Blocked3
12Inside Box4
2Outside Box4
Passing
52%Possession48%
392Total Passes326
280Accurate Passes220
71%Pass Accuracy67%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
14Fouls10
1Yellow Cards0
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Preston vs Bristol City

Preston beat Bristol City 1-0 in Championship on December 18, 2020.

Goals: D. Johnson (21' pen).

Preston controlled possession (52%) and registered 14 shots to 8.

The match was played at Deepdale in Preston.