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Preston vs Bristol City — Championship 2018

Preston
Preston
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Bristol City
Bristol City
D. Johnson 42'
F. Diedhiou 69'
3/2/2019ChampionshipChampionship · Round 35Deepdale Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 62+ matches

Preston39%
×Draw28%
Bristol City34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Preston
1.24
Bristol City
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 62 home / 62 away

creates per match

Preston
1.14
Bristol City
1.10

allows per match

Preston
1.17
Bristol City
1.34

finishing

Preston+0.07on par
Bristol City-0.10scores less

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

Bristol City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Preston or draw
66%
Preston or Bristol City
72%
Draw or Bristol City
61%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+
17%
Bristol City wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals
71%
Preston 2+ goals
35%
Preston 3+ goals
13%
Bristol City 1+ goals
68%
Bristol City 2+ goals
32%
Bristol City 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)
53%
Bristol City (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.17 · 62 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.34 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 1.14 + Bristol City defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.24

Bristol City attack 1.10 + Preston defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Preston scores more
39%
level
28%
Bristol City scores more
34%

Preston at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Preston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12
P. GallagherPrestonPreston · M
8.1

Match Events

41'
Lloyd Kelly
42'
D. Johnson↳ P. Gallagher
50'
Callum O'Dowda
53'
A. Semenyo← C. ODowda
60'
J. Dasilva← L. Kelly
65'
M. O’Leary← N. Mäenpää
69'
F. Diedhiou↳ M. Pack
74'
T. Barkhuizen← P. Gallagher
80'
L. Nmecha← B. Potts
84'
Marlon Pack
87'
J. Stockley← D. Johnson

Possession

49%Preston

Shots

17Preston

Pass accuracy

48%Preston

Statistics

PrestonBristol
Overview
49%Possession51%
17Total Shots16
5Corners5
9Fouls16
Shots
17Total Shots16
3On Target3
12Off Target6
2Blocked7
10Inside Box11
7Outside Box5
Passing
49%Possession51%
337Total Passes346
196Accurate Passes219
58%Pass Accuracy63%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
9Fouls16
0Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Preston vs Bristol City

Preston and Bristol City drew 1-1 in Championship on March 2, 2019.

Goals: D. Johnson (42'), F. Diedhiou (69').

Bristol City controlled possession (51%) and registered 16 shots to 17.

The match was played at Deepdale Stadium in Preston.