Preston 2–1 Bournemouth: Result & Stats

Preston

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Bournemouth

E. Riis 89'

C. Archer 54'

J. Lowe 50'

3/5/2022

Championship · Round 36Deepdale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Preston31%

×Draw27%

Bournemouth41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PrestonExpected goals in this matchBournemouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.31

Preston

1.10

Bournemouth

1.31

Bournemouth creates 19% more chances

Season form · 181 home / 50 away

1.29

creates per match

1.40

1.22

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Preston

1.29

Bournemouth

1.40

allows per match

Preston

1.22

Bournemouth

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Preston+0.00on par

Bournemouth+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

Bournemouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Preston or draw

59%

Preston or Bournemouth

73%

Draw or Bournemouth

69%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+

12%

Bournemouth wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals

67%

Preston 2+ goals

30%

Preston 3+ goals

10%

Bournemouth 1+ goals

73%

Bournemouth 2+ goals

38%

Bournemouth 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)

43%

Bournemouth (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.22 · 181 matches

Bournemouth away — creates 1.40, concedes 0.92 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 1.29 + Bournemouth defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.10

Bournemouth attack 1.40 + Preston defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Preston scores more

31%

level

27%

Bournemouth scores more

41%

Bournemouth at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bournemouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

C. Archer

Preston · F

7.5

Match Events

-5'

Adam Smith

24'

Brad Potts

50'

J. Lowe↳ J. Anthony

54'

C. Archer↳ D. Johnson

58'

Sepp van den Berg

63'

A. McCann← J. Earl

67'

E. Laird← A. Smith

67'

R. Christie← J. Anthony

75'

E. Riis← C. Evans

75'

J. Murphy← B. Potts

80'

B. Pearson← T. Cantwell

82'

89'

90'

90+8'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PrestonBournemouth

Overview

40%Possession60%

13Total Shots8

2Corners4

11Fouls10

Shots

13Total Shots8

5On Target3

4Off Target3

4Blocked2

9Inside Box7

4Outside Box1

Passing

40%Possession60%

343Total Passes524

228Accurate Passes421

66%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls10

4Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

2Offsides1