Bournemouth 1–2 Preston: Result & Stats

Bournemouth

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Preston

P. Billing 60'

A. McCann 78'

B. Whiteman 52'

11/3/2021

Championship · Round 16Vitality Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Bournemouth50%

×Draw25%

Preston24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BournemouthExpected goals in this matchPreston

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.00

Bournemouth

1.56

Preston

1.00

Bournemouth creates 56% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 183 away

1.75

creates per match

1.03

0.98

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Bournemouth

1.75

Preston

1.03

allows per match

Bournemouth

0.98

Preston

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bournemouth+0.00on par

Preston+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bournemouth ↓

Preston →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Bournemouth or draw

76%

Bournemouth or Preston

75%

Draw or Preston

50%

Winning margin

Bournemouth wins by 2+

26%

Preston wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Bournemouth 1+ goals

79%

Bournemouth 2+ goals

46%

Bournemouth 3+ goals

21%

Preston 1+ goals

63%

Preston 2+ goals

26%

Preston 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Bournemouth (draw refunded)

67%

Preston (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bournemouth at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.98 · 48 matches

Preston away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.38 · 183 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bournemouth attack 1.75 + Preston defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.56

Preston attack 1.03 + Bournemouth defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Bournemouth scores more

50%

level

25%

Preston scores more

24%

Bournemouth at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Bournemouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

B. Whiteman

Preston · M

8.2

Match Events

52'

58'

60'

62'

66'

J. Anthony← B. Pearson

74'

B. Potts← S. Maguire

75'

G. Cunningham← J. Earl

77'

78'

84'

84'

84'

E. Marcondes← R. Christie

89'

D. Johnson← A. McCann

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BournemouthPreston

Overview

62%Possession38%

10Total Shots8

9Corners2

10Fouls10

Shots

10Total Shots8

5On Target3

4Off Target3

1Blocked2

6Inside Box6

4Outside Box2

Passing

62%Possession38%

552Total Passes356

460Accurate Passes247

83%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls10

3Yellow Cards1