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Preston vs Bournemouth — Championship 2018

Preston
Preston
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Bournemouth
Bournemouth
D. Johnson 71'
A. Groeneveld 37'
3/6/2021ChampionshipChampionship · Round 35Deepdale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Preston31%
×Draw27%
Bournemouth41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Preston
1.10
Bournemouth
1.31

Bournemouth creates 19% more chances

Season form · 181 home / 50 away

creates per match

Preston
1.29
Bournemouth
1.40

allows per match

Preston
1.22
Bournemouth
0.92

finishing

Preston+0.00on par
Bournemouth+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

Bournemouth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Preston or draw
59%
Preston or Bournemouth
73%
Draw or Bournemouth
69%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+
12%
Bournemouth wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals
67%
Preston 2+ goals
30%
Preston 3+ goals
10%
Bournemouth 1+ goals
73%
Bournemouth 2+ goals
38%
Bournemouth 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)
43%
Bournemouth (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.22 · 181 matches

Bournemouth away — creates 1.40, concedes 0.92 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 1.29 + Bournemouth defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.10

Bournemouth attack 1.40 + Preston defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Preston scores more
31%
level
27%
Bournemouth scores more
41%

Bournemouth at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bournemouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
B. WhitemanPrestonPreston · M
7.7

Match Events

33'
Daniel Johnson
37'
A. Groeneveld↳ D. Solanke
66'
S. Maguire← T. Barkhuizen
66'
A. Gordon← S. Sinclair
71'
D. Johnson
73'
Greg Cunningham
75'
S. Long← L. Cook
84'
B. Potts← D. Johnson
84'
J. Wilshere← J. Stanislas

Possession

44%Preston

Shots

10Preston

Pass accuracy

47%Preston

Statistics

PrestonBournemouth
Overview
44%Possession56%
10Total Shots12
5Corners4
17Fouls8
Shots
10Total Shots12
3On Target6
4Off Target5
3Blocked1
8Inside Box6
2Outside Box6
Passing
44%Possession56%
321Total Passes412
203Accurate Passes291
63%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
5Saves2
Discipline
17Fouls8
2Yellow Cards0
2Offsides3

Championship: Preston 1–1 Bournemouth

Preston and Bournemouth drew 1-1 in Championship on March 6, 2021.

Goals: A. Groeneveld (37'), D. Johnson (71').

Bournemouth controlled possession (56%) and registered 12 shots to 10.

The match was played at Deepdale in Preston.