Preston Lions 1–0 Melbourne Victory II

Preston Lions

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Melbourne Victory II

J. Markovski 49'

7/25/2025

Victoria NPL · Round 23Genis Steel Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Preston Lions55%

×Draw22%

Melbourne Victory II23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Preston LionsExpected goals in this matchMelbourne Victory II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.16

Preston Lions

1.93

Melbourne Victory II

1.16

Preston Lions creates 66% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 13 away

1.62

creates per match

1.46

0.86

allows per match

2.23

creates per match

Preston Lions

1.62

Melbourne Victory II

1.46

allows per match

Preston Lions

0.86

Melbourne Victory II

2.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Preston Lions+0.00on par

Melbourne Victory II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston Lions ↓

Melbourne Victory II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Preston Lions or draw

77%

Preston Lions or Melbourne Victory II

78%

Draw or Melbourne Victory II

45%

Winning margin

Preston Lions wins by 2+

32%

Melbourne Victory II wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Preston Lions 1+ goals

85%

Preston Lions 2+ goals

57%

Preston Lions 3+ goals

30%

Melbourne Victory II 1+ goals

69%

Melbourne Victory II 2+ goals

32%

Melbourne Victory II 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Preston Lions (draw refunded)

71%

Melbourne Victory II (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston Lions at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.86 · 21 matches

Melbourne Victory II away — creates 1.46, concedes 2.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston Lions attack 1.62 + Melbourne Victory II defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.93

Melbourne Victory II attack 1.46 + Preston Lions defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Preston Lions scores more

55%

level

22%

Melbourne Victory II scores more

23%

Preston Lions at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Preston Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

49'

J. Markovski

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff