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Preston Lions vs Melbourne Victory II — Victoria NPL 2 2026

Preston Lions
Preston Lions
FT
0 – 2
Melbourne Victory II
Melbourne Victory II
2/16/2024Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 2Genis Steel Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Preston Lions36%
×Draw22%
Melbourne Victory II42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Preston Lions
1.77
Melbourne Victory II
1.92

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 24 away

creates per match

Preston Lions
1.62
Melbourne Victory II
2.42

allows per match

Preston Lions
1.42
Melbourne Victory II
1.92

finishing

Preston Lions+0.00on par
Melbourne Victory II+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston Lions ↓

Melbourne Victory II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Preston Lions or draw
58%
Preston Lions or Melbourne Victory II
78%
Draw or Melbourne Victory II
64%

Winning margin

Preston Lions wins by 2+
18%
Melbourne Victory II wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Preston Lions 1+ goals
83%
Preston Lions 2+ goals
53%
Preston Lions 3+ goals
26%
Melbourne Victory II 1+ goals
85%
Melbourne Victory II 2+ goals
57%
Melbourne Victory II 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Preston Lions (draw refunded)
46%
Melbourne Victory II (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston Lions at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.42 · 26 matches

Melbourne Victory II away — creates 2.42, concedes 1.92 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston Lions attack 1.62 + Melbourne Victory II defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.77

Melbourne Victory II attack 2.42 + Preston Lions defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Preston Lions scores more
36%
level
22%
Melbourne Victory II scores more
42%

Melbourne Victory II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Melbourne Victory II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL 2: Preston Lions 0–2 Melbourne Victory II

Melbourne Victory II beat Preston Lions 2-0 in Victoria NPL 2 on February 16, 2024.

The match was played at Genis Steel Stadium in Melbourne.