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Melbourne Victory II vs Preston Lions — Victoria NPL 2 2026

Melbourne Victory II
Melbourne Victory II
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Preston Lions
Preston Lions
5/27/2024Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 15John Cain Memorial Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Melbourne Victory II48%
×Draw22%
Preston Lions30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Melbourne Victory II
2.00
Preston Lions
1.56

Melbourne Victory II creates 28% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 26 away

creates per match

Melbourne Victory II
2.55
Preston Lions
1.85

allows per match

Melbourne Victory II
1.27
Preston Lions
1.46

finishing

Melbourne Victory II+0.00on par
Preston Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melbourne Victory II ↓

Preston Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Melbourne Victory II or draw
70%
Melbourne Victory II or Preston Lions
78%
Draw or Preston Lions
52%

Winning margin

Melbourne Victory II wins by 2+
27%
Preston Lions wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Melbourne Victory II 1+ goals
86%
Melbourne Victory II 2+ goals
59%
Melbourne Victory II 3+ goals
32%
Preston Lions 1+ goals
79%
Preston Lions 2+ goals
46%
Preston Lions 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Melbourne Victory II (draw refunded)
61%
Preston Lions (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melbourne Victory II at home — creates 2.55, concedes 1.27 · 22 matches

Preston Lions away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.46 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melbourne Victory II attack 2.55 + Preston Lions defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 2.00

Preston Lions attack 1.85 + Melbourne Victory II defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Melbourne Victory II scores more
48%
level
22%
Preston Lions scores more
30%

Melbourne Victory II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Melbourne Victory II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Melbourne Victory II vs Preston Lions

Melbourne Victory II and Preston Lions drew 2-2 in Victoria NPL 2 on May 27, 2024.

The match was played at John Cain Memorial Reserve in Melbourne.