Prat 1–1 L'Escala: Result & Stats

Prat

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

L'Escala

Miguel Fernández 43' (pen)

Xumetra 89' (pen)

1/14/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 16Estadio Municipal Sagnier

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Prat42%

×Draw27%

L'Escala30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PratExpected goals in this matchL'Escala

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.08

Prat

1.33

L'Escala

1.08

Prat creates 23% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 51 away

0.97

creates per match

0.96

1.21

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Prat

0.97

L'Escala

0.96

allows per match

Prat

1.21

L'Escala

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Prat+0.00on par

L'Escala+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Prat ↓

L'Escala →

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Prat or draw

70%

Prat or L'Escala

73%

Draw or L'Escala

58%

Winning margin

Prat wins by 2+

19%

L'Escala wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Prat 1+ goals

74%

Prat 2+ goals

38%

Prat 3+ goals

15%

L'Escala 1+ goals

66%

L'Escala 2+ goals

29%

L'Escala 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Prat (draw refunded)

58%

L'Escala (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Prat at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.21 · 34 matches

L'Escala away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.69 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Prat attack 0.97 + L'Escala defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.33

L'Escala attack 0.96 + Prat defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Prat scores more

42%

level

27%

L'Escala scores more

30%

Prat at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Prat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'

Miguel FernándezPenalty

46'

Xumetra← Pablo Calvete

46'

Maha← Pol Bastidas

59'

Miki Puerto← Julen Álvarez

59'

Lamelas← Alejandro Pino

76'

Ivan Torres← Yusef Lasgaa

76'

Javier García← David Adan

80'

I. Nemoto← Adrià Ramirez

85'

Sergio Paz← Miguel Fernández

87'

P. Valencia← Iván Amoedo

87'

Roger Fortuny← Josu Currais

89'

V. Merchan

89'

XumetraPenalty

Prat

L'Escala

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Fernández

Maldonado

Manager: Miguel Ángel Motoso

59'▲Miki Puerto←▼Julen Álvarez

59'▲Lamelas←▼Alejandro Pino

76'▲Ivan Torres←▼Yusef Lasgaa

76'▲Javier García←▼David Adan

85'▲Sergio Paz←▼Miguel Fernández

Prat substitutes

PuertoLamelasTorresGarcíaPaz

Manager: Aday

46'▲Xumetra←▼Pablo Calvete

46'▲Maha←▼Pol Bastidas

80'▲I. Nemoto←▼Adrià Ramirez

87'▲P. Valencia←▼Iván Amoedo

87'▲Roger Fortuny←▼Josu Currais

L'Escala substitutes

XumetraMahaNemotoValenciaFortuny

Prat 1 – 1 L'Escala

Prat and L'Escala drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on January 14, 2024.

Goals: Miguel Fernández (43' pen), Xumetra (89' pen).

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Sagnier in El Prat de Llobregat.

Prat vs L'Escala — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Prat 1 – 1 L'Escala