L'Escala 3–5 Prat: Result & Stats

L'Escala

3 – 5

HT: 2 – 1

Prat

Josu Currais 48'

Eric Pimentel 45+2' (pen)

Xumetra 19' (pen)

A. Kerobyan 90+5', 58'

Isaac Padilla 90+2'

Yusef Lasgaa 88'

Ferrán Sarsanedas 35'

5/5/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 33Estadi Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

L'Escala46%

×Draw25%

Prat28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

L'EscalaExpected goals in this matchPrat

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.14

L'Escala

1.54

Prat

1.14

L'Escala creates 35% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 34 away

1.80

creates per match

1.00

1.27

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

L'Escala

1.80

Prat

1.00

allows per match

L'Escala

1.27

Prat

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

L'Escala+0.00on par

Prat+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

L'Escala ↓

Prat →

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

L'Escala or draw

72%

L'Escala or Prat

75%

Draw or Prat

54%

Winning margin

L'Escala wins by 2+

23%

Prat wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

L'Escala 1+ goals

79%

L'Escala 2+ goals

45%

L'Escala 3+ goals

20%

Prat 1+ goals

68%

Prat 2+ goals

32%

Prat 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

L'Escala (draw refunded)

62%

Prat (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

L'Escala at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.27 · 51 matches

Prat away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.29 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

L'Escala attack 1.80 + Prat defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.54

Prat attack 1.00 + L'Escala defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

L'Escala scores more

46%

level

25%

Prat scores more

28%

L'Escala at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "L'Escala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

XumetraPenalty

35'

Ferrán Sarsanedas

45+2'

Eric PimentelPenalty

48'

Josu Currais

58'

A. Kerobyan

63'

Izan Maldonado← Miguel Fernández

69'

Pablo Calvete← Iván Amoedo

69'

Maha← I. Nemoto

79'

Yusef Lasgaa← Miki Puerto

79'

Isaac Padilla← Ivan Torres

82'

Álvaro← Javier García

83'

Iker Garcia← Xumetra

83'

Roger Fortuny← Adrià Ramirez

88'

Yusef Lasgaa

90+2'

Isaac Padilla

90+5'

A. Kerobyan

L'Escala

Prat

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Aday

69'▲Pablo Calvete←▼Iván Amoedo

69'▲Maha←▼I. Nemoto

83'▲Iker Garcia←▼Xumetra

83'▲Roger Fortuny←▼Adrià Ramirez

L'Escala substitutes

CalveteMahaGarciaFortuny

Manager: Miguel Ángel Motoso

63'▲Izan Maldonado←▼Miguel Fernández

79'▲Yusef Lasgaa←▼Miki Puerto

79'▲Isaac Padilla←▼Ivan Torres

82'▲Álvaro←▼Javier García

Prat substitutes

MaldonadoLasgaaPadillaÁlvaro

L'Escala 3 – 5 Prat

Prat beat L'Escala 5-3 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on May 5, 2024.

Goals: Xumetra (19' pen), Ferrán Sarsanedas (35'), Eric Pimentel (45+2' pen), Josu Currais (48'), A. Kerobyan (58', 90+5'), Yusef Lasgaa (88'), Isaac Padilla (90+2').

The match was played at Estadi Municipal in L'Escala.

L'Escala vs Prat — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

L'Escala 3 – 5 Prat