Prachuap 2–0 Chonburi FC: Result & Stats

Prachuap

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Chonburi FC

4/18/2026

League #296 · Round 20Sam Ao Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Prachuap54%

×Draw23%

Chonburi FC22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PrachuapExpected goals in this matchChonburi FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.06

Prachuap

1.79

Chonburi FC

1.06

Prachuap creates 69% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 26 away

1.94

creates per match

1.12

1.00

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Prachuap

1.94

Chonburi FC

1.12

allows per match

Prachuap

1.00

Chonburi FC

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Prachuap+0.00on par

Chonburi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Prachuap ↓

Chonburi FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Prachuap or draw

78%

Prachuap or Chonburi FC

77%

Draw or Chonburi FC

46%

Winning margin

Prachuap wins by 2+

30%

Chonburi FC wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Prachuap 1+ goals

83%

Prachuap 2+ goals

53%

Prachuap 3+ goals

26%

Chonburi FC 1+ goals

65%

Chonburi FC 2+ goals

29%

Chonburi FC 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Prachuap (draw refunded)

71%

Chonburi FC (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Prachuap at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

Chonburi FC away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.65 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Prachuap attack 1.94 + Chonburi FC defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.79

Chonburi FC attack 1.12 + Prachuap defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Prachuap scores more

54%

level

23%

Chonburi FC scores more

22%

Prachuap at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Prachuap will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff