Prachuap 3–1 Chonburi FC: Result & Stats

Prachuap

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Chonburi FC

Derley 49'

Tamer Seyam 35'

S. Kanyarot 6'

A. Ouattara 45'

12/15/2023

League #296 · Round 14Sam Ao Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Prachuap50%

×Draw25%

Chonburi FC25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PrachuapExpected goals in this matchChonburi FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.04

Prachuap

1.59

Chonburi FC

1.04

Prachuap creates 53% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 30 away

1.55

creates per match

1.17

0.91

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Prachuap

1.55

Chonburi FC

1.17

allows per match

Prachuap

0.91

Chonburi FC

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Prachuap+0.00on par

Chonburi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Prachuap ↓

Chonburi FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Prachuap or draw

75%

Prachuap or Chonburi FC

75%

Draw or Chonburi FC

50%

Winning margin

Prachuap wins by 2+

26%

Chonburi FC wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Prachuap 1+ goals

80%

Prachuap 2+ goals

47%

Prachuap 3+ goals

21%

Chonburi FC 1+ goals

65%

Chonburi FC 2+ goals

28%

Chonburi FC 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Prachuap (draw refunded)

67%

Chonburi FC (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Prachuap at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

Chonburi FC away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.63 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Prachuap attack 1.55 + Chonburi FC defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.59

Chonburi FC attack 1.17 + Prachuap defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Prachuap scores more

50%

level

25%

Chonburi FC scores more

25%

Prachuap at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Prachuap will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

S. Kanyarot

Prachuap · M

8.0

Match Events

6'

S. Kanyarot↳ Samuel

21'

Prasit Jantum

34'

Phanuphong Phonsa

35'

Tamer Seyam↳ P. Jantum

37'

Prasit Jantum

37'

Prasit Jantum

42'

Songchai Thongcham

45'

A. Ouattara↳ Willian Lira

46'

Y. Burapha← S. Sontisawat

46'

Lee Chan-Dong← N. Kotchpalayuk

47'

Phanuphong Phonsa

47'

Phanuphong Phonsa

49'

Derley↳ Samuel

63'

Chakkit Laptrakul

66'

J. Phasukihan← Tamer Seyam

67'

K. Sansanit← C. Rueangthanarot

78'

C. Tongtae← S. Kanyarot

85'

S. Faidong← N. Phonkam

90+2'

K. Thawikan← S. Thongcham

90+2'

S. Paso← Willian Lira

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PrachuapChonburi

Overview

31%Possession69%

13Total Shots17

3Corners7

13Fouls16

Shots

13Total Shots17

5On Target4

6Off Target7

2Blocked6

6Inside Box10

7Outside Box7

Passing

31%Possession69%

224Total Passes501

166Accurate Passes446

74%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls16

3Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards1

1Offsides2