Chonburi FC 1–1 Prachuap: Result & Stats

Chonburi FC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Prachuap

5/12/2024

League #296 · Round 28Chonburi UTA Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Chonburi FC51%

×Draw25%

Prachuap24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chonburi FCExpected goals in this matchPrachuap

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.02

Chonburi FC

1.60

Prachuap

1.02

Chonburi FC creates 57% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 17 away

1.80

creates per match

0.88

1.16

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Chonburi FC

1.80

Prachuap

0.88

allows per match

Chonburi FC

1.16

Prachuap

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chonburi FC+0.00on par

Prachuap+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chonburi FC ↓

Prachuap →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Chonburi FC or draw

76%

Chonburi FC or Prachuap

75%

Draw or Prachuap

49%

Winning margin

Chonburi FC wins by 2+

27%

Prachuap wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Chonburi FC 1+ goals

80%

Chonburi FC 2+ goals

47%

Chonburi FC 3+ goals

22%

Prachuap 1+ goals

64%

Prachuap 2+ goals

27%

Prachuap 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Chonburi FC (draw refunded)

68%

Prachuap (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chonburi FC at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.16 · 25 matches

Prachuap away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chonburi FC attack 1.80 + Prachuap defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.60

Prachuap attack 0.88 + Chonburi FC defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Chonburi FC scores more

51%

level

25%

Prachuap scores more

24%

Chonburi FC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Chonburi FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff