Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Poseidon Nea Michaniona vs Doxa Dramas — League #576 2026

Poseidon Nea Michaniona
Poseidon Nea Michaniona
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Doxa Dramas
Doxa Dramas
4/8/2026League #576League #576

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Poseidon Nea Michaniona37%
×Draw24%
Doxa Dramas39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Poseidon Nea Michaniona
1.50
Doxa Dramas
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Poseidon Nea Michaniona
2.00
Doxa Dramas
1.33

allows per match

Poseidon Nea Michaniona
1.75
Doxa Dramas
1.00

finishing

Poseidon Nea Michaniona+0.00on par
Doxa Dramas+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Poseidon Nea Michaniona ↓

Doxa Dramas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Poseidon Nea Michaniona or draw
61%
Poseidon Nea Michaniona or Doxa Dramas
76%
Draw or Doxa Dramas
63%

Winning margin

Poseidon Nea Michaniona wins by 2+
18%
Doxa Dramas wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Poseidon Nea Michaniona 1+ goals
78%
Poseidon Nea Michaniona 2+ goals
44%
Poseidon Nea Michaniona 3+ goals
19%
Doxa Dramas 1+ goals
79%
Doxa Dramas 2+ goals
45%
Doxa Dramas 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Poseidon Nea Michaniona (draw refunded)
49%
Doxa Dramas (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Poseidon Nea Michaniona at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Doxa Dramas away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Poseidon Nea Michaniona attack 2.00 + Doxa Dramas defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Doxa Dramas attack 1.33 + Poseidon Nea Michaniona defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Poseidon Nea Michaniona scores more
37%
level
24%
Doxa Dramas scores more
39%

Doxa Dramas at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Doxa Dramas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Poseidon Nea Michaniona vs Doxa Dramas

Doxa Dramas beat Poseidon Nea Michaniona 3-2 in League #576 on April 8, 2026.