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Poseidon Nea Michaniona vs Doxa Dramas — League #576 2026

Poseidon Nea Michaniona
Poseidon Nea Michaniona
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Doxa Dramas
Doxa Dramas
10/29/2023League #576League #576 · Group 1 - 8Gipedo Podosferou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Poseidon Nea Michaniona43%
×Draw24%
Doxa Dramas33%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Poseidon Nea Michaniona
1.67
Doxa Dramas
1.42

Poseidon Nea Michaniona creates 18% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Poseidon Nea Michaniona
2.00
Doxa Dramas
1.17

allows per match

Poseidon Nea Michaniona
1.67
Doxa Dramas
1.33

finishing

Poseidon Nea Michaniona+0.00on par
Doxa Dramas+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Poseidon Nea Michaniona ↓

Doxa Dramas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Poseidon Nea Michaniona or draw
67%
Poseidon Nea Michaniona or Doxa Dramas
76%
Draw or Doxa Dramas
57%

Winning margin

Poseidon Nea Michaniona wins by 2+
22%
Doxa Dramas wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Poseidon Nea Michaniona 1+ goals
81%
Poseidon Nea Michaniona 2+ goals
50%
Poseidon Nea Michaniona 3+ goals
23%
Doxa Dramas 1+ goals
76%
Doxa Dramas 2+ goals
41%
Doxa Dramas 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Poseidon Nea Michaniona (draw refunded)
57%
Doxa Dramas (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Poseidon Nea Michaniona at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Doxa Dramas away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Poseidon Nea Michaniona attack 2.00 + Doxa Dramas defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Doxa Dramas attack 1.17 + Poseidon Nea Michaniona defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Poseidon Nea Michaniona scores more
43%
level
24%
Doxa Dramas scores more
33%

Poseidon Nea Michaniona at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Poseidon Nea Michaniona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #576: Poseidon Nea Michaniona 4–2 Doxa Dramas

Poseidon Nea Michaniona beat Doxa Dramas 4-2 in League #576 on October 29, 2023.

The match was played at Gipedo Podosferou in Nea Michaniona.