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Portstewart vs Armagh City — League #561 2026

Portstewart
Portstewart
FT
1 – 1
Armagh City
Armagh City
10/7/2023League #561League #561 · Round 4Seahaven

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Portstewart46%
×Draw24%
Armagh City30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portstewart
1.69
Armagh City
1.31

Portstewart creates 29% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Portstewart
1.74
Armagh City
1.42

allows per match

Portstewart
1.21
Armagh City
1.63

finishing

Portstewart+0.00on par
Armagh City+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portstewart ↓

Armagh City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Portstewart or draw
70%
Portstewart or Armagh City
76%
Draw or Armagh City
54%

Winning margin

Portstewart wins by 2+
24%
Armagh City wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Portstewart 1+ goals
82%
Portstewart 2+ goals
50%
Portstewart 3+ goals
24%
Armagh City 1+ goals
73%
Armagh City 2+ goals
38%
Armagh City 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Portstewart (draw refunded)
61%
Armagh City (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portstewart at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Armagh City away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portstewart attack 1.74 + Armagh City defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.69

Armagh City attack 1.42 + Portstewart defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Portstewart scores more
46%
level
24%
Armagh City scores more
30%

Portstewart at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Portstewart will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Portstewart vs Armagh City

Portstewart and Armagh City drew 1-1 in League #561 on October 7, 2023.

The match was played at Seahaven in Portstewart.