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Armagh City vs Portstewart — League #561 2026

Armagh City
Armagh City
FT
2 – 1
Portstewart
Portstewart
2/3/2024League #561League #561 · Round 17Holm Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Armagh City42%
×Draw25%
Portstewart33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Armagh City
1.53
Portstewart
1.33

Armagh City creates 15% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 25 away

creates per match

Armagh City
1.50
Portstewart
1.16

allows per match

Armagh City
1.50
Portstewart
1.56

finishing

Armagh City+0.00on par
Portstewart+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Armagh City ↓

Portstewart →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Armagh City or draw
67%
Armagh City or Portstewart
75%
Draw or Portstewart
58%

Winning margin

Armagh City wins by 2+
21%
Portstewart wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Armagh City 1+ goals
78%
Armagh City 2+ goals
45%
Armagh City 3+ goals
20%
Portstewart 1+ goals
74%
Portstewart 2+ goals
38%
Portstewart 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Armagh City (draw refunded)
56%
Portstewart (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Armagh City at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

Portstewart away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.56 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Armagh City attack 1.50 + Portstewart defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.53

Portstewart attack 1.16 + Armagh City defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Armagh City scores more
42%
level
25%
Portstewart scores more
33%

Armagh City at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Armagh City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #561: Armagh City 2–1 Portstewart

Armagh City beat Portstewart 2-1 in League #561 on February 3, 2024.

The match was played at Holm Park in Armagh.