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Portstewart vs Armagh City — League #561 2026

Portstewart
Portstewart
FT
2 – 2
Armagh City
Armagh City
12/3/2022League #561League #561 · Round 9Seahaven

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Portstewart36%
×Draw24%
Armagh City40%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portstewart
1.50
Armagh City
1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 10 away

creates per match

Portstewart
1.41
Armagh City
1.90

allows per match

Portstewart
1.24
Armagh City
1.60

finishing

Portstewart+0.00on par
Armagh City+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portstewart ↓

Armagh City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Portstewart or draw
60%
Portstewart or Armagh City
76%
Draw or Armagh City
64%

Winning margin

Portstewart wins by 2+
17%
Armagh City wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Portstewart 1+ goals
78%
Portstewart 2+ goals
44%
Portstewart 3+ goals
19%
Armagh City 1+ goals
79%
Armagh City 2+ goals
46%
Armagh City 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Portstewart (draw refunded)
48%
Armagh City (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portstewart at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

Armagh City away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portstewart attack 1.41 + Armagh City defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.50

Armagh City attack 1.90 + Portstewart defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Portstewart scores more
36%
level
24%
Armagh City scores more
40%

Armagh City at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Armagh City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Portstewart vs Armagh City

Portstewart and Armagh City drew 2-2 in League #561 on December 3, 2022.

The match was played at Seahaven in Portstewart.