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Portsmouth vs West Brom — Championship 2025

Portsmouth
Portsmouth
Preview
15:00
West Brom
West Brom
12/5/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 19Fratton Park
42%
Portsmouth
model favours
42%27%31%

West Brom score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Portsmouth42%
×Draw27%
West Brom31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portsmouth
1.35
West Brom
1.13

Portsmouth creates 19% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 23 away

creates per match

Portsmouth
1.61
West Brom
1.25

allows per match

Portsmouth
1.00
West Brom
1.09

finishing

Portsmouth-0.70scores less
West Brom-0.34scores less

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portsmouth ↓

West Brom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Portsmouth or draw
69%
Portsmouth or West Brom
73%
Draw or West Brom
58%

Winning margin

Portsmouth wins by 2+
19%
West Brom wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Portsmouth 1+ goals
74%
Portsmouth 2+ goals
39%
Portsmouth 3+ goals
15%
West Brom 1+ goals
68%
West Brom 2+ goals
31%
West Brom 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Portsmouth (draw refunded)
57%
West Brom (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portsmouth at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

West Brom away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.09 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portsmouth attack 1.61 + West Brom defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.35

West Brom attack 1.25 + Portsmouth defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Portsmouth scores more
42%
level
27%
West Brom scores more
31%

Portsmouth at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Portsmouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Their last 4 meetings averaged 3.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Portsmouth
Balanced
West Brom
Defensively solid
47%Possession52%
72%Pass accuracyBiggest gap81%
13.4Shots13.1
1.26xG1.31
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
PortsmouthWest Brom

Head-to-head

4 previous meetings

1
Portsmouth
1
Draws
2
West Brom
Avg goals: 3.5BTTS: 50%
3–01–11–50–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Portsmouth
LWDWL
Brom
WLDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Portsmouth vs West Brom — Match Preview

Portsmouth face West Brom on December 5, 2026 in this Championship fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Portsmouth host West Brom at Fratton Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.