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Portsmouth vs Norwich — Championship 2024

Portsmouth
Portsmouth
Preview
15:00
Norwich
Norwich
1/16/2027ChampionshipChampionship · Round 26Fratton Park
Big match
41%
Portsmouth
model favours
41%26%33%
1–1
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Portsmouth41%
×Draw26%
Norwich33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portsmouth
1.38
Norwich
1.21

Portsmouth creates 14% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 35 away

creates per match

Portsmouth
1.47
Norwich
1.30

allows per match

Portsmouth
1.11
Norwich
1.28

finishing

Portsmouth-0.36scores less
Norwich+0.10scores more

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portsmouth ↓

Norwich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Portsmouth or draw
67%
Portsmouth or Norwich
74%
Draw or Norwich
59%

Winning margin

Portsmouth wins by 2+
19%
Norwich wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Portsmouth 1+ goals
75%
Portsmouth 2+ goals
40%
Portsmouth 3+ goals
16%
Norwich 1+ goals
70%
Norwich 2+ goals
34%
Norwich 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Portsmouth (draw refunded)
55%
Norwich (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portsmouth at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.11 · 27 matches

Norwich away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.28 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portsmouth attack 1.47 + Norwich defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.38

Norwich attack 1.30 + Portsmouth defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Portsmouth scores more
41%
level
26%
Norwich scores more
33%

Portsmouth at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Portsmouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Portsmouth
Balanced
Norwich
Balanced
48%Possession55%
72%Pass accuracy82%
12.2Shots12.6
1.16xGBiggest gap1.39
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
PortsmouthNorwich

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

2
Portsmouth
2
Draws
1
Norwich
Avg goals: 2.8BTTS: 60%
1–11–25–30–01–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Portsmouth
LWDWL
Norwich
DWLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Portsmouth host Norwich

January 16, 2027: Portsmouth take on Norwich in Championship. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Portsmouth host Norwich at Fratton Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.