Portsmouth 1–2 Norwich: Result & Stats

Portsmouth

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Norwich

A. Segecic 84'

J. Sargent 14'

H. Darling 6'

8/16/2025

Championship · Round 2Fratton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Portsmouth43%

×Draw26%

Norwich31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PortsmouthExpected goals in this matchNorwich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.22

Portsmouth

1.48

Norwich

1.22

Portsmouth creates 21% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 30 away

1.69

creates per match

1.36

1.07

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Portsmouth

1.69

Norwich

1.36

allows per match

Portsmouth

1.07

Norwich

1.27

-0.44scores less than expected

finishing

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

Portsmouth-0.44scores less

Norwich+0.11scores more

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portsmouth ↓

Norwich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Portsmouth or draw

69%

Portsmouth or Norwich

74%

Draw or Norwich

57%

Winning margin

Portsmouth wins by 2+

21%

Norwich wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Portsmouth 1+ goals

77%

Portsmouth 2+ goals

43%

Portsmouth 3+ goals

19%

Norwich 1+ goals

70%

Norwich 2+ goals

34%

Norwich 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Portsmouth (draw refunded)

58%

Norwich (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portsmouth at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.07 · 16 matches

Norwich away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.27 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portsmouth attack 1.69 + Norwich defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.48

Norwich attack 1.36 + Portsmouth defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Portsmouth scores more

43%

level

26%

Norwich scores more

31%

Portsmouth at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Portsmouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

J. Sargent

Norwich · F

7.5

Match Events

6'

H. Darling↳ M. Nunez

14'

J. Sargent↳ J. Cordoba

25'

Mirko Topić

37'

José Córdoba

46'

J. Wright← M. Nunez

46'

O. Schwartau← E. Marcondes

57'

F. Bianchini← C. Lang

58'

Regan Poole

65'

K. Fisher← J. Stacey

70'

Z. Swanson← J. Williams

70'

T. Waddingham← J. Murphy

75'

M. Kvistgaarden← J. Sargent

76'

J. Schlupp← P. A. Diallo

84'

A. Segecic↳ F. Bianchini

90+9'

John Swift

90+7'

Connor Ogilvie

90+8'

Harry Darling

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PortsmouthNorwich

Overview

58%Possession42%

19Total Shots11

1.76Expected Goals (xG)1.96

9Corners0

8Fouls13

Shots

19Total Shots11

3On Target5

9Off Target6

7Blocked0

8Inside Box7

11Outside Box4

Passing

58%Possession42%

459Total Passes353

343Accurate Passes236

75%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

0.06Goals Prevented0.06

Discipline

8Fouls13

3Yellow Cards3

3Offsides1

Match Recap: Portsmouth vs Norwich

Norwich beat Portsmouth 2-1 in Championship on August 16, 2025.

Goals: H. Darling (6'), J. Sargent (14'), A. Segecic (84').

Portsmouth controlled possession (58%) and registered 19 shots to 11.

The match was played at Fratton Park in Portsmouth.

Portsmouth vs Norwich — Championship 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Portsmouth vs Norwich