Norwich 3–5 Portsmouth: Result & Stats

Norwich

FT

3 – 5

HT: 1 – 3

Portsmouth

E. Marcondes 90'

J. Stacey 64'

J. Sargent 21'

R. Poole 71'

C. Bishop 51', 45+4' (pen), 15'

M. Ritchie 39'

4/18/2025

Championship · Round 43Carrow Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Norwich44%

×Draw26%

Portsmouth30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorwichExpected goals in this matchPortsmouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.17

Norwich

1.47

Portsmouth

1.17

Norwich creates 26% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 19 away

1.50

creates per match

0.90

1.43

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Norwich

1.50

Portsmouth

0.90

allows per match

Norwich

1.43

Portsmouth

1.44

+0.07on par

finishing

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

Norwich+0.07on par

Portsmouth+0.21scores more

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norwich ↓

Portsmouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Norwich or draw

70%

Norwich or Portsmouth

74%

Draw or Portsmouth

56%

Winning margin

Norwich wins by 2+

21%

Portsmouth wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Norwich 1+ goals

77%

Norwich 2+ goals

43%

Norwich 3+ goals

18%

Portsmouth 1+ goals

69%

Portsmouth 2+ goals

33%

Portsmouth 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Norwich (draw refunded)

59%

Portsmouth (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norwich at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.43 · 28 matches

Portsmouth away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.44 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norwich attack 1.50 + Portsmouth defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.47

Portsmouth attack 0.90 + Norwich defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Norwich scores more

44%

level

26%

Portsmouth scores more

30%

Norwich at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Norwich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

C. Bishop

Portsmouth · F

9.2

Match Events

15'

C. Bishop↳ M. Ritchie

21'

J. Sargent

31'

Matt Ritchie

32'

Isaac Hayden

39'

M. Ritchie↳ J. Murphy

45+4'

C. BishopPenalty

46'

J. Stacey← M. Núñez

46'

E. Marcondes← J. Sargent

51'

C. Bishop↳ J. Murphy

55'

A. Dozzell← I. Hayden

58'

C. Doyle← O. Schwartau

64'

J. Stacey↳ J. Wright

67'

J. Sørensen← J. Córdoba

71'

R. Poole↳ A. Aouchiche

75'

K. Yengi← C. Bishop

79'

Borja Sainz

85'

Z. Swanson← R. Atkinson

85'

T. Devlin← A. Aouchiche

86'

M. Pack← M. Ritchie

89'

A. Forson← K. Fisher

90+5'

Andre Dozzell

90'

E. Marcondes↳ J. Wright

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorwichPortsmouth

Overview

60%Possession40%

11Total Shots22

1.17Expected Goals (xG)2.71

6Corners5

12Fouls11

Shots

11Total Shots22

6On Target10

1Off Target4

4Blocked8

9Inside Box14

2Outside Box8

Passing

60%Possession40%

503Total Passes315

406Accurate Passes230

81%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

-0.95Goals Prevented-0.95

Discipline

12Fouls11

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1

Championship: Norwich 3–5 Portsmouth

Portsmouth beat Norwich 5-3 in Championship on April 18, 2025.

Goals: C. Bishop (15', 45+4' pen, 51'), J. Sargent (21'), M. Ritchie (39'), J. Stacey (64'), R. Poole (71'), E. Marcondes (90').

Norwich controlled possession (60%) and registered 11 shots to 22.

The match was played at Carrow Road in Norwich, Norfolk.

Norwich vs Portsmouth — Championship 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Norwich 3–5 Portsmouth