Norwich 1–1 Portsmouth: Result & Stats

Norwich

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Portsmouth

P. Mattsson 26'

P. Mattsson 84' (OG)

4/3/2026

Championship · Round 40Carrow Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Norwich43%

×Draw26%

Portsmouth30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorwichExpected goals in this matchPortsmouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.15

Norwich

1.43

Portsmouth

1.15

Norwich creates 24% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 16 away

1.60

creates per match

0.88

1.42

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Norwich

1.60

Portsmouth

0.88

allows per match

Norwich

1.42

Portsmouth

1.25

+0.01on par

finishing

+0.31scores more than expected

finishing

Norwich+0.01on par

Portsmouth+0.31scores more

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norwich ↓

Portsmouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Norwich or draw

70%

Norwich or Portsmouth

74%

Draw or Portsmouth

57%

Winning margin

Norwich wins by 2+

21%

Portsmouth wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Norwich 1+ goals

76%

Norwich 2+ goals

42%

Norwich 3+ goals

17%

Portsmouth 1+ goals

68%

Portsmouth 2+ goals

32%

Portsmouth 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Norwich (draw refunded)

59%

Portsmouth (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norwich at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.42 · 23 matches

Portsmouth away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norwich attack 1.60 + Portsmouth defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.43

Portsmouth attack 0.88 + Norwich defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Norwich scores more

43%

level

26%

Portsmouth scores more

30%

Norwich at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Norwich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

K. McLean

Norwich · M

8.0

Match Events

5'

16'

26'

30'

46'

48'

62'

63'

M. Toure← M. Kvistgaarden

63'

A. Ahmed← O. Schwartau

65'

K. Anderson← M. Alli

65'

A. Dozzell← M. Pack

67'

Pelle Mattsson

73'

A. Slimane← J. Wright

78'

H. Blair← G. Caballero

78'

J. Brown← C. Chaplin

83'

J. Cordoba← J. Medic

84'

P. MattssonOwn goal

86'

C. Shaughnessy← M. Dia

87'

Colby Bishop

90+4'

Jacob Brown

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorwichPortsmouth

Overview

58%Possession42%

6Total Shots5

0.44Expected Goals (xG)0.50

5Corners6

17Fouls11

Shots

6Total Shots5

2On Target1

2Off Target2

2Blocked2

3Inside Box4

3Outside Box1

Passing

58%Possession42%

353Total Passes247

281Accurate Passes183

80%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

-0.15Goals Prevented-0.15

Discipline

17Fouls11

3Yellow Cards5

2Offsides3

Championship: Norwich 1–1 Portsmouth

Norwich and Portsmouth drew 1-1 in Championship on April 3, 2026.

Goals: P. Mattsson (26', 84' o.g.).

Norwich controlled possession (58%) and registered 6 shots to 5.

The match was played at Carrow Road in Norwich.

Norwich vs Portsmouth — Championship 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Norwich 1–1 Portsmouth